Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T09:00:05.932Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This market is a short-window binary contract on Bitcoin's price. The title is "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET" [1]. According to the source excerpt, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the excerpt states that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A contract on a different Bitcoin price source, or a different averaging window, could resolve differently even if its title looks similar.
The listed end time is 2026-11-02T15:05:00.000Z [1]. That is the provider's listed close time. It is not a record of when the contract resolved, and the supplied evidence does not include a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-11-02T09:00:05.932Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-02T11:24:34.553Z [1]. The price data is therefore a snapshot from the observation time, not a live reading at the retrieval time. The provider status recorded in the excerpt is "active" [1].
The saved snapshot shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the provider record. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of the outcome. The gap between them is 0.010 in the snapshot, but that difference alone does not indicate an arbitrage opportunity or a forecast.
The coverage record shows one market in this event, with all markets included and no partial sample [1]. The sample therefore covers both outcomes of this single binary contract. No other provider event or platform is part of this comparison, so no cross-platform averages are shown.
Volume and trader counts are not included in the supplied evidence, so they cannot be assessed here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did at the observation time. It also does not show any later prices, any final TWAP values, or the resolved outcome. A reader who wants to know the result should check the resolution source named in the contract rules.
The sample warning states that the providers listing does not establish every possible real-world outcome [1]. Because this is a binary contract, the two listed outcomes are the only ones in the saved record.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T09:00:05.932Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Bitcoin price contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET", listed in the crypto category on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price over a five-minute window will end up or down relative to where it started. According to the contract rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The outcome is decided by one specific data feed rather than by general market prices. The rules name the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that the market concerns the price in that stream, not any other source or spot market [1]. This means a reader should not assume that the contract tracks the price on a particular exchange or a broader market average. The listed end time is 2026-11-02T15:05:00Z [1]. That is the time the contract is set to close under its listing. It is not a record of when the market was resolved, and the source material does not describe any resolution result. The saved sample for this event contains one market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. The observed prices in that sample were 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down [1]. These figures are snapshots taken at the observation time, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price, as recorded by the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, over one five-minute window. The result depends on whether the average price across that window is at or above the price at the start of the window [1]. Because the rules tie the outcome to a single data stream, the contract isolates that feed's readings rather than a general view of the crypto market. Readers can use the contract's rules to understand exactly what the two outcomes represent, and the observed prices show how the market was pricing the two outcomes at one moment in the sample [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-02 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the "Up" outcome mean in this contract?
The "Up" outcome applies if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which data source decides the result?
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market is not based on any other sources or spot markets [1].
Do the listed prices show the likelihood of each outcome?
The saved prices were 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down at the observation time [1]. These are snapshots and not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be treated as a forecast.
When does this contract close?
The listed end time is 2026-11-02T15:05:00Z [1]. The source does not report how or when the contract was resolved.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.