Texas's 28th congressional district covers a large swath of South Texas, stretching from the suburbs of San Antonio down to the U.S.-Mexico border. The district includes all of Webb County (Laredo) and parts of Bexar County, as well as several rural counties. Texas 28 has been a reliably Democratic seat for decades, but demographic shifts and a growing Republican presence in South Texas have made it increasingly competitive. The general election for the Texas 28 House seat in 2024 features incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar facing Republican challenger Jay Furman. Cuellar has held the seat since 2005, surviving several close races, including a 2022 primary runoff against progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros that he won by fewer than 300 votes. The district's voter turnout is a key variable in determining the outcome. Turnout in Texas 28 has historically been lower than the state average, especially in midterm elections. In the 2022 general election, about 140,000 votes were cast in the district, compared to over 200,000 in the 2020 presidential election. The 2024 election is expected to see higher turnout due to the presidential race at the top of the ticket. The prediction market for Texas 28 House General Election voter turnout is focused on the total number of votes cast for all candidates in the race. The market will resolve based on the officially certified results from the Texas Secretary of State or relevant county election authorities. This includes all ballots counted in the final certification: early voting, mail-in ballots, provisional ballots, and Election Day votes. The key question is whether turnout will exceed a specific threshold, which the market will define. For context, the 2022 turnout of roughly 140,000 votes was low relative to the district's voting-age population of approximately 550,000. A high-turnout scenario in 2024 could see 180,000 to 200,000 votes cast, while a low-turnout scenario might stay near 150,000. Factors influencing turnout include the presidential race, down-ballot enthusiasm, and local issues like border security and economic concerns in the Laredo area.

Historical Context

Texas's 28th congressional district was created after the 1990 census and first contested in 1992. The district was drawn to be a majority-Hispanic seat, and it has been held by Democrats for most of its history. From 1993 to 2005, the district was represented by Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, who lost the 2004 primary to Henry Cuellar. Cuellar has held the seat since then, winning general elections with margins ranging from 10 to 40 points. The district's boundaries have changed several times due to redistricting. After the 2010 census, the Republican-controlled Texas legislature redrew the map to make the district more Republican, but a federal court later ruled that map was discriminatory and ordered new boundaries. The current map, used since 2022, was drawn by a federal court and is considered more compact and competitive. In 2020, Donald Trump won 46% of the vote in Texas 28, up from 39% in 2016, reflecting the GOP's growing appeal in South Texas. The 2022 general election saw turnout of about 140,000 votes, with Cuellar winning 57% to Furman's 43%. That was Cuellar's closest general election since 2010, when he won by 8 points. The district's voter turnout has historically been below the state average. In the 2022 midterm, statewide turnout was about 55% of registered voters, while in Texas 28 it was about 48%. In the 2020 presidential election, statewide turnout was 66%, while in Texas 28 it was about 60%. The gap is attributed to lower engagement in Hispanic-majority districts and the relatively young population of the Laredo area.