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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?

Name: Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.96K

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Markets

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Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?

Vol

$4.96K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.96K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.96K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?	Poly	31%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?	Poly	25%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+?	Poly	24%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?	Poly	22%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	Poly	14%
Will Paloma Valencia win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	10%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	10%
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$4.96K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-plac

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-plac

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the f"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $25.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $873
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $262
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $196
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Paloma Valencia win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $515
  DATA: [Yes: 9.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $204
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $210
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics