NCAA Football: Wisconsin 2026 Win Total
PM $5.9K
1
5
NCAA Football: Wisconsin 2026 Win Total
PM $5.9K
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 5.5+ Wins at 96.8%.
Polymarket
- 5.5+ Wins96.8%
- 4.5+ Wins94.3%
- 6.5+ Wins80.5%
- 7.5+ Wins58.5%
- 8.5+ Wins32.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $5.9K
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team's regular season win total exceeds the listed number. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Only official regular-season games count. Conference championship games, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count even if the NCAA recognizes them as such. Only played games resulting in a win will count toward this total. If the listed team plays fewer games than scheduled due to cancellation, weather, forfeit, or any other reason, only actual wins recorded count toward the total; canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins. If the 2026 NCAA Division 1 Football regular season is cancelled, postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many wins the listed team recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official NCAA and conference records (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event asks whether Wisconsin's regular season win total in the 2026 season exceeds a listed number [1]. Each of the five contracts uses a different threshold: 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, and 8.5 wins. Only official regular-season games count. Conference championship, bowl, and College Football Playoff games are excluded even if the NCAA recognizes them as such, and canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins [1].
The rules also include a fallback. If the 2026 NCAA Division 1 Football regular season is cancelled, postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the win count cannot be determined within that timeframe, the market resolves to "No" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-12-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time in the contract data. It is not an announced event date or a confirmed resolution date.
Resolution relies primarily on official NCAA and conference records, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T05:05:49.155Z [1]. These prices describe that observed moment only. They are not live quotes or executable prices.
The quoted Yes prices fall as the threshold rises: 0.9495 for more than 4.5 wins, 0.9695 for more than 5.5, 0.84 for more than 6.5, 0.685 for more than 7.5, and 0.445 for more than 8.5 [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract. The rows describe different outcomes, so they should not be averaged together or compared with other platforms' events as if they were the same question.
The sample includes all five markets saved for this Polymarket event, and partialSample is set to false [1]. The sample warning still notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1].
The snapshot does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price sits where it does. It also does not include recent team news, schedule details, or game results beyond the contract text. Prices may have changed after the observation time.
Because only official regular-season wins count, readers should check the NCAA and conference records named in the rules rather than relying on the quoted prices alone. If another platform lists a similar contract with different wording or a different close time, the two are not directly comparable. A price difference between contracts does not by itself establish an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: NCAA Football: Wisconsin 2026 Win Total. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a prediction market on the number of regular season wins for the University of Wisconsin football team in the 2026 season. The contract asks whether Wisconsin's regular season win total will exceed a listed threshold. The saved event includes five thresholds: 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 and 8.5 wins. Each threshold is a separate yes or no contract on the same underlying question [1]. The resolution rules are narrow. Only official regular season games count toward the total. Conference championship games, bowl games and College Football Playoff games do not count, even if the NCAA recognizes them as such [1]. Only games that the team played and won are counted. If a game is canceled, postponed, forfeited or otherwise not played, it does not count as a win for either side of the threshold [1]. The rules also address a season-level disruption. If the 2026 NCAA Division 1 Football regular season is cancelled, or is postponed past a deadline stated in the rules, or if it cannot be determined how many wins the team recorded within that window, the market resolves to No [1]. The deadline in the rules is a condition of the contract, not an announced date for any game or event. The primary resolution source named in the rules is official NCAA and conference records. The rules also allow a consensus of credible reporting to be used [1]. The event's listed end time is 2026-12-27 04:59 UTC, which is the contract's closing time under its listed rules. Observation, retrieval and closing times should be read separately, since they describe different moments in the contract's life.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, checkable outcome: whether Wisconsin's official regular season win count in 2026 exceeds each listed threshold [1]. Because the thresholds differ, the contracts ask related but separate questions about how many wins the team reaches. The rules define what counts as a win, which games are excluded and how a canceled season is handled, so the difference between a played win and a scheduled game is central to how each contract resolves [1]. Readers should note that the price of any contract is a snapshot at a point in time and is not a guarantee of how the season will unfold.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this contract actually measure?
It measures whether Wisconsin's regular season win total exceeds the number listed in each contract. A yes outcome requires the total to be above that threshold, and a no outcome means it is not [1].
Do bowl games or conference championship games count?
No. The rules state that conference championship games, bowl games and College Football Playoff games do not count, even if the NCAA recognizes them as such [1].
What happens if a game is canceled or not played?
Only actual wins recorded count toward the total. Canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins for the team [1].
What happens if the season is cancelled or postponed?
Under the rules, the market resolves to No if the 2026 regular season is cancelled, if it is postponed past the deadline stated in the rules, or if it cannot be determined how many wins the team recorded within that timeframe [1].
Which sources decide the result?
The primary resolution source is official NCAA and conference records. The rules also allow a consensus of credible reporting to be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
