Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Bank of Russia decision in December?

Name: Bank of Russia decision in December?
End: 2026-12-18T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.54K

Events

Markets

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Bank of Russia decision in December?

Vol

$7.54K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $7.54K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.54K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	45%
Will the Bank of Russia announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	44%
Will the Bank of Russia announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	8%
Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	6%
Will the Bank of Russia announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

45%

Top Probability

$7.54K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bank of Russia decision in December?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 18, 2026 (68 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.82)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Bank of Russia announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 18, 2026): Vol $355
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 18, 2026): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Bank of Russia announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 18, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Bank of Russia announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 18, 2026): Vol $181
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Bank of Russia announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 18, 2026): Vol $205
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy