Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee: Earned Runs
K 114.43 contracts
1
8
Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee: Earned Runs
K 114.43 contracts
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 24, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Drew Rasmussen: 1+ at 72%.
Kalshi
- Drew Rasmussen: 1+72%
- Logan Henderson: 4+53.5%
- Logan Henderson: 3+53.5%
- Drew Rasmussen: 2+53%
- Drew Rasmussen: 4+49.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 114.43 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
TB vs MIL (Oct 24) If Drew Rasmussen records X earned runs in the Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Drew Rasmussen is scratched or is not a starting pitcher, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Drew Rasmussen is not a starting pitcher but later enters the game, the market will resolve to the fair market price, relief appearances will not count towards this market. If Drew Rasmussen is a starting pitcher and records at least one batter faced the market will settle based on earned runs recorded. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These markets come from one Kalshi event, "Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee: Earned Runs" [1]. Each contract asks whether a named pitcher will record a stated number of earned runs in the game "originally scheduled for Oct 23, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT" [1]. The rules say that if the named pitcher "is scratched or is not a starting pitcher, the market will resolve to the fair market price," and that relief appearances do not count [1]. If the pitcher starts and "records at least one batter faced," the market settles on earned runs recorded [1].
The contract's rules also state that the market "will close and expire after the event occurs" [1]. The endDate field in the saved data is 2026-10-27T00:00:00.000Z, but the source says the listed end time was "not supplied" [1]. Treat that field as a stored value, not a confirmed closing or event date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-22T06:16:14.452Z [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The saved sample includes seven Kalshi contracts. Jacob Misiorowski's 1+ earned runs Yes price is 0.605, the highest in the set. Drew Rasmussen's 2+ Yes price is 0.555 and his 1+ Yes price is 0.505. Several thresholds, including Misiorowski's 2+ and 3+ and Rasmussen's 3+ and 4+, are listed near 0.495.
One pattern needs caution. Rasmussen's 2+ Yes price (0.555) is higher than his 1+ Yes price (0.505). Because a 2+ outcome requires at least as many earned runs as a 1+ outcome, this ordering may reflect quoting or snapshot timing rather than a meaningful difference. The data does not explain it.
What remains uncertain
The sample is complete for this event: 7 of 7 markets are included, and the partialSample flag is false [1]. The source still notes that inclusion "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
Only one platform appears in the evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The data also does not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of traders, and it does not explain why any price is where it is. Whether a pitcher starts or is scratched could change how a contract settles, so the rules should be read in full before any comparison.
References
- Kalshi: Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee: Earned Runs. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi market tied to the Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee professional baseball game, which the contract rules say was originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT [1]. The contract is an earned runs market on a named pitcher. The rules state that if Drew Rasmussen records X earned runs in that game, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules also say the market will close and expire after the event occurs [1]. Because the rules say the game was originally scheduled for that time, the actual date and time of play may differ from that listing. The contract's settlement depends on the pitcher's role in the game. If Rasmussen is scratched or is not a starting pitcher, the market will resolve to the fair market price [1]. If he is not a starting pitcher but later enters the game, it also resolves to the fair market price, and relief appearances do not count toward this market [1]. If he is a starting pitcher and faces at least one batter, the market settles based on the earned runs he records [1]. Those conditions determine whether a contract settles on a count of earned runs or on the fair market price. The supplied rules also state that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League, and that trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners [1]. The event record shows the provider status as active and does not supply a listed end time [1]. The market data for this event lists several earned run thresholds, including 1+, 2+, 3+ and 4+ contracts for different pitchers. Those listings are a snapshot of this saved event and are not a complete list of every possible outcome. Their prices are shown separately in the application's market data.
Historical Context
The supplied Wikipedia material is limited to franchise and season background and does not describe this game, these pitchers or this market. The 2026 Milwaukee Brewers season page describes the 2026 season as the 57th season for the Brewers in Milwaukee and says the team improved on its previous season's record and franchise record of 97 to 65 [2]. The 2023 Tampa Bay Rays season page describes that season as the 26th for the franchise and their 16th as the Rays, and says the team played home games at Tropicana Field in the American League East [3]. These pages were retrieved as background, and they do not establish the current standing or status of either team on the date of this entry.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the number of earned runs charged to one named starting pitcher in one scheduled game. Its settlement rules are narrow. A pitcher who is scratched, who does not start, or who only makes relief appearances does not settle on earned runs under the rules [1]. Only earned runs from a starting appearance in which the pitcher faces at least one batter count toward a Yes or No outcome [1]. Because the contract is tied to one game and one pitcher, its value depends on how that specific game is played and whether the stated conditions are met [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event does this contract cover?
The contract covers the Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee professional baseball game that the rules say was originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT [1].
When does the market resolve to Yes?
The market resolves to Yes if Drew Rasmussen records X earned runs in that game, according to the stated threshold for the contract [1].
What happens if the pitcher is scratched or does not start?
If Rasmussen is scratched or is not a starting pitcher, the market will resolve to the fair market price under the rules [1].
Do relief appearances count?
No. If Rasmussen is not a starting pitcher but later enters the game, relief appearances will not count toward this market, and the rules say it resolves to the fair market price [1].
What is required for the earned runs to count?
The rules say that if Rasmussen is a starting pitcher and records at least one batter faced, the market settles based on earned runs recorded [1].
Is Kalshi affiliated with the league?
The rules state that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
