Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo
PM $644.3K
1
1
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo
PM $644.3K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 3.8% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes3.8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $644.3K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Polymarket event "Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo" resolves to "Yes" only if three conditions are all met: a Russia x Ukraine ceasefire, Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO, and Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia [1]. The rules require these conditions to be met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise the market resolves to "No" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules also say the market stays open until a condition is confirmed as unmet, or until all conditions are met within the timeframe [1]. The listed end time is therefore a provider field, not a guaranteed resolution date, and readers should check the full rules document linked by the source [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-22T07:30:03.164Z [1]. The price data therefore describes the market at the observation time, not necessarily at the moment you read this. The saved market shows "Yes" at 0.039 and "No" at 0.961 [1]. These are snapshot prices. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The sample covers one market in this event, and the coverage record reports that all saved markets for the event are included, with no partial sample [1]. Because the event contains only this one saved market, there is no other outcome to compare it with here. The sample does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome, so the saved event should not be read as the full field of possibilities.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why the price is at its observed level, and it does not show trading activity, liquidity, or how many people hold each position. Volume, if it were available, would not measure liquidity or trader count. The evidence also contains no current news, no status beyond the provider's "active" label at retrieval, and no announced milestones or dates beyond the contract rules and listed end time. Comparing this price with a contract on another platform would require checking that the wording, conditions, deadlines, and close times match, because differences in those terms can make a price gap reflect different questions rather than a trading opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo is a Polymarket contract in the Sports category that asks whether three separate conditions will all be met by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET [1]. The contract is a combination, or parlay, of three conditions: a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, an agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO, and the signing of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia [1]. The contract resolves to Yes only if all three conditions are met within that timeframe. If any condition is not met, it resolves to No [1]. The rules state that the market stays open until it is confirmed that at least one condition has not been met, or until all conditions have been met within the specified timeframe [1]. The listed end time in the provider data is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, which corresponds to the December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET deadline in the rules [1]. That listed end time is a closing date in the contract structure. It is not an announced date for any diplomatic event. As of the provider observation, the market was listed as active [1]. The provider's rules link to a separate full rules document, but that document was not part of the material reviewed for this article, so details beyond the summary conditions above are not described here.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific package of outcomes occurs together: a ceasefire, a commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO, and a signed peace deal between the two countries, all by the stated deadline [1]. Because all three conditions must hold, the contract does not track any single negotiation step on its own. A No resolution can occur if one condition fails, which is why the market can be confirmed as No before the deadline if a condition is ruled out [1]. The contract's price is a snapshot of trading at the time it was observed and is not an executable quote or a verified probability of the outcome. Readers should treat the displayed prices as market readings from one observation point, not as forecasts that the provider or this article endorses.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for this market to resolve Yes?
All three listed conditions must be met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: a Russia x Ukraine ceasefire, an agreement that Ukraine will not join NATO, and a signed peace deal between Ukraine and Russia [1].
What happens if only some of the conditions are met?
The market resolves to No if at least one condition is not met within the timeframe [1]. The rules say the market remains open until it is confirmed that a condition has failed or until all conditions are met on time [1].
Is the end date an announced date for a peace event?
No. The listed end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z matches the contract's December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET deadline [1]. It is a contract closing time, not an announced event date.
Does the price show the probability of a peace deal?
Not as a verified figure. The price is a snapshot from the observation time and is not an executable quote [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
UEFA EURO 2028: Winner
PM $171.3K
Russia VTB United Champion
K 0 contracts
Ukraine Superleague: 2027 Champion
PM $0
2030 FIFA World Cup Champion
K 833.5K contracts
UEFA Nations League 2026-27: Group B2 Winner
PM $69.0K
2028 UEFA Euros Champion
K 48.3K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
