GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US retail sales in June

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US retail sales in June

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

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8 markets tracked

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?	Kalshi	79%
Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.2%?	Kalshi	67%
Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.4%?	Kalshi	49%
Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.6%?	Kalshi	34%
Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.8%?	Kalshi	17%
Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 1.0%?	Kalshi	10%
Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 1.2%?	Kalshi	5%
Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 1.4%?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

79%

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$0.00

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About This Event

June 2026 If the United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US retail sales in June
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** June 2026

If the United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 is above 1.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 1.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 1.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 1.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 79.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US retail sales in June

Volume$0.00

Markets8

8 of 8

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KALSHI

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 79.0¢No 21.0¢

KALSHITech

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?

If the United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.5¢No 33.5¢

KALSHITech

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.2%?

If the United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 is above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢

KALSHITech

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.4%?

If the United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 is above 0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.5¢No 66.5¢

KALSHITech

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.6%?

If the United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 is above 0.6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.8%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHITech

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.8%?

If the United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 is above 0.8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

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Average Yes Price

33¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Qs_vFD" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US retail sales in June"></iframe>

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US retail sales in June

US retail sales in June

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Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

US retail sales in June

Markets (8)

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.4%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.4%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.6%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.6%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.8%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.8%?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US retail sales in June

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.4%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.4%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.6%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.6%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.8%?

Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.8%?

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