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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

NCAA Football: Team to be Ranked #1

NCAA Football: Team to be Ranked #1
Vol

PM $13.9K

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Events

1

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Markets

13

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Notre Dame at 50%.

Polymarket

  1. Notre Dame50%
  2. Oregon49.9%
  3. Alabama49.5%
  4. Indiana21%
  5. LSU15%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $13.9K

Reported volume ยท provider units

13

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed team is ranked #1 on the AP top 25 College Football Poll during any gameweek of the 2026-27 season, preseason polls do not count. Otherwise this market will resolve "No". This market does not count any other ranking sources such as other power rankings or CFP rankings. The primary resolution source for this market will be the AP News Top 25 College Football Poll (https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.

Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied rules say the market "will resolve 'Yes' if the listed team is ranked #1 on the AP top 25 College Football Poll during any gameweek of the 2026-27 season, preseason polls do not count" [1]. Other ranking sources do not count: the rules state that the market "does not count any other ranking sources such as other power rankings or CFP rankings" [1]. The AP News Top 25 is the primary resolution source, but the rules also say "a consensus of credible reporting will also be used" [1]. A reader comparing team contracts should therefore check that each one uses this same AP-based wording.

Each team has its own Yes or No contract. The listed close time is "not supplied," and the market endDate is null in the saved record [1]. The rules describe when a contract can resolve, not a fixed final date, so no closing date should be assumed.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 03:15:20Z [1]. These are snapshot values from that observation period, not live quotes or current conditions at the time you read this. The 12 included Yes prices ranged from 0.0185 for USC to 0.42 for Miami (FL) [1]. Miami (FL) was highest among the included contracts at 0.42, followed by Notre Dame at 0.315 and Oregon at 0.265 [1].

These prices are not executable quotes and are not verified probabilities. The saved record does not include volume, liquidity, or trader counts, so it cannot show how many participants agree or how deep the market is.

The sample is partial. The event has 14 markets, and 12 are included, so two contracts are not shown [1]. The omitted contracts may have prices that are not in this record. No ranking should be inferred for them. The included prices should not be treated as a complete field, and they should not be combined with rankings from other events or providers.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is. It also does not include news, the reasons for movement, or the AP poll's current ranking. Differences between contracts are not an arbitrage signal by themselves, because the wording, close times, and resolution details may differ. Finally, a price of 0.42 is a market snapshot, not a forecast of AP results.

References

  1. Polymarket: NCAA Football: Team to be Ranked #1. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTC

This saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.

Overview

This PredictPedia contract is titled "NCAA Football: Team to be Ranked #1" and sits in the sports category. Its rules tie resolution to the AP Top 25 College Football Poll. According to the contract rules, the market resolves "Yes" if the listed team is ranked #1 on the AP top 25 College Football Poll during any gameweek of the 2026-27 season, and preseason polls do not count. Otherwise it resolves "No" [1]. Each team-specific market in the saved event asks the same question for a different school, such as Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Oregon, or Indiana [1]. The rules also say that other ranking sources, such as other power rankings or CFP rankings, are not counted. The primary resolution source is the AP News Top 25 College Football Poll, but the rules add that a consensus of credible reporting will also be used [1]. This means the contract is about a single weekly poll position rather than a playoff result, a championship game, or any final season outcome. The contract's wording refers to gameweeks in the 2026-27 season. The saved provider record does not supply a listed end time, and the individual market end dates are not supplied either. For that reason, this article does not state when the market will close or when resolution is expected. A date in the contract rules describes the season being measured, not an announced event date. The prices in the saved event are provider snapshots taken at the observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. A higher price on one team's contract does not show that the team is more likely to be ranked first than another team, and differences between prices on different contracts do not by themselves identify an opportunity. The saved event contains 14 markets, and 12 are included in this sample, ordered by Yes price with the highest prices first [1]. Any ranking within this sample reflects only those included markets, and the omitted contracts are not known to be lower-priced.

Historical Context

Division I FBS is the only NCAA sport for which the NCAA does not host a yearly championship event. Because of this, a national championship at that level is awarded annually by various organizations to their own selection of the best team, and it is sometimes called a "mythical national championship" [2]. The AP poll is one of the rankings that has long been used in this context. A Wikipedia list tracks how many weeks each college football team has been ranked number one in the AP poll since its inception in 1936, through October 4, 2026 [3]. That list reflects a date range ending in October 2026, so it is historical background rather than a current ranking, and it does not identify which team holds the top spot today.

Why It Matters

The contract measures whether a specific school earns the top position in one named poll during a defined season window. Because the AP poll is the primary resolution source and preseason polls are excluded, the contract depends on in-season poll movement rather than preseason expectations [1]. Its rules also exclude other ranking systems, so a team ranked first by a different service would not by itself satisfy the contract [1]. Readers should treat each market as a separate yes or no question about one team, with the saved prices serving only as a snapshot of provider activity.

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

What does this contract ask?

It asks whether the listed team will be ranked #1 on the AP top 25 College Football Poll during any gameweek of the 2026-27 season. If not, it resolves "No" [1].

Do preseason polls count?

No. The contract states that preseason polls do not count [1].

Are other rankings used to resolve the contract?

The contract says that other ranking sources, such as other power rankings or CFP rankings, are not counted [1]. The primary source is the AP poll, with a consensus of credible reporting also used [1].

Does a price show how likely a team is to be ranked first?

No. The saved prices are provider snapshots. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as confirmed chances of a team reaching the top spot.

Is the price list the complete field of teams?

No. The saved event has 14 markets, and 12 are included in this sample. The sample is ordered by Yes price, so it is not a full list of every possible team in the event [1].

Was this helpful?
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics
College Football: #1 Ranked Team on Final AP Poll

College Football: #1 Ranked Team on Final AP Poll

K 426.1 contracts
Will Ohio St. be the #1 ranked team on the College Football Final AP Poll rankings of the 2026-27 season?Yes 32%
Will Miami (FL) be the #1 ranked team on the College Football Final AP Poll rankings of the 2026-27 season?Yes 21.5%
Will Notre Dame be the #1 ranked team on the College Football Final AP Poll rankings of the 2026-27 season?Yes 20.5%
+72 moreNext deadline Feb 10, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
College Football: Top 25 Ranked Teams on Nov 1 AP Poll

College Football: Top 25 Ranked Teams on Nov 1 AP Poll

K 4.5K contracts
Will Notre Dame be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?Yes 97.5%
Will Miami (FL) be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?Yes 97%
Will Ohio St. be a top 25 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?Yes 96.5%
+72 moreNext deadline Nov 24, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
College Football: Top 10 Ranked Teams on Nov 1 AP Poll

College Football: Top 10 Ranked Teams on Nov 1 AP Poll

K 108.1 contracts
Will Ohio St. be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?Yes 93%
Will Notre Dame be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?Yes 93%
Will Miami (FL) be a top 10 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?Yes 93%
+72 moreNext deadline Nov 24, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
College Football: Top 5 Ranked Teams on Nov 1 AP Poll

College Football: Top 5 Ranked Teams on Nov 1 AP Poll

K 0 contracts
Will Notre Dame be a top 5 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?Yes 90%
Will Miami (FL) be a top 5 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?Yes 89%
Will Ohio St. be a top 5 ranked team on the College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?Yes 76.5%
+72 moreNext deadline Nov 24, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
College Football: #1 Ranked Team on Nov 1 AP Poll

College Football: #1 Ranked Team on Nov 1 AP Poll

K 1.9K contracts
Will Miami (FL) be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?Yes 64.5%
Will Ohio St. be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?Yes 10.5%
Will Georgia be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?Yes 4.5%
+10 moreNext deadline Jan 14, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
College Football: #1 Ranked Team on Oct 25 AP Poll

College Football: #1 Ranked Team on Oct 25 AP Poll

K 3.1K contracts
Will Miami (FL) be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 9 rankings (expected to be released on Oct 25, 2026)?Yes 80%
Will Ohio St. be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 9 rankings (expected to be released on Oct 25, 2026)?Yes 4%
Will Texas Tech be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 9 rankings (expected to be released on Oct 25, 2026)?Yes 2%
+10 moreNext deadline Jan 14, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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