GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?

Name: Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.38K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?

Vol

$7.38K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $7.38K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.38K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	Poly	56%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

56%

Top Probability

$7.38K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Idaho Proposition 1 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would create a right to abortion and other reproductive choices in the State of Idaho. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Idaho statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (59 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Idaho Proposition 1 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would create a right to abortion and other reproductive choices in the State of Idaho. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Idaho statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Idaho Proposition 1 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would create a right to abortion and other reproductive choices in the State of Idaho. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics