Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T06:00:05.981Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The market is titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET" [1]. The saved rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T04:05:00.000Z [1]. Readers comparing this contract with others should check the reference source, averaging method, window, and close time first. A contract with different wording would measure something different, even if its title sounds similar.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation is dated 2026-10-27T06:00:05.981Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-27T07:34:04.057Z [1]. These timestamps describe the saved record, not live trading at the time you read this. The provider status recorded at retrieval was active [1].
The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They sum to 1.000 in this record, but the snapshot does not show the spread, market depth, or the price a trader could actually fill. The record also does not include volume or participant counts, so it gives no basis for judging liquidity or how many people hold either view. It does not explain why the prices sit where they do.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. All saved markets for that event are included and the sample is not partial [1]. With only one contract, there is no ranking or comparison within this sample, and nothing about omitted outcomes can be inferred.
What remains uncertain
The saved record was made before the contract window started and before its listed end time, so it does not show the beginning-of-window price, the TWAP value, or any resolved outcome. No comparable contract from another platform appears in the evidence, so no cross-platform price comparison is possible. The evidence also does not address forecasting accuracy, recent news, or any movement after the saved observation. Check the live contract rules and status before relying on any figure.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T06:00:05.981Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers the Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM to 12:05AM ET." It belongs to the crypto category and is a short-window contract on the direction of Bitcoin's price. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink, specifically its BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second TWAP [1]. The rules state that the contract concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A reader should therefore treat the contract as tied to that specific data feed, not to the price on a particular exchange or a general news figure for Bitcoin. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T04:05:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract's listed end time, not a separate announcement or a sign that anything else is scheduled. The provider's status for the event was recorded as active at the time of the saved observation [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average Bitcoin price over a five minute window, as recorded by a specific Chainlink data stream, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the comparison uses a time-weighted average rather than a single trade, the outcome depends on how the price moved across the whole interval and not only on its final value. The rules limit the outcome to that one data stream, so price moves on other venues would not decide the result on their own [1]. In the saved snapshot, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are prices from one observation of one contract. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The sample includes only this one market, and the saved records show no other outcomes for this event, so the figures should not be compared with prices from other contracts or other time periods.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does it mean for this contract to resolve Up?
The contract resolves Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range [1].
Which price feed decides the outcome?
The rules name the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second TWAP as the resolution source, and state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Does the listed price mean a verified chance of Up?
No. The saved prices of 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down are snapshots from one observation and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.