Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Polymarket event asks how many receiving touchdowns George Kittle records in the 2026-27 NFL regular season [1]. Each market is a threshold question. The three saved markets ask whether he will record at least 5.5, 7.5, or 9.5 receiving touchdowns, and each resolves to "Yes" if the count equals or exceeds the listed number [1]. The rules also say that if Kittle does not play in the regular season for any reason, the market resolves to "No" [1]. If the season is cancelled, or postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the count cannot be determined, the market resolves to "50-50" [1]. The resolution source is official NFL information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].

The listed end time for all three markets is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a contract closing time, not a record of when the season ends or when any event is scheduled.

Reading the snapshot

The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-16T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 05:36 UTC the same day [1]. They describe that moment only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

The observed Yes prices were 0.685 for 5.5 or more touchdowns, 0.42 for 7.5 or more, and 0.26 for 9.5 or more [1]. Because these are separate thresholds, the prices should be read one market at a time. They should not be averaged or combined into a single estimate. The fact that the 9.5 contract is priced lower than the 5.5 contract reflects the different thresholds in the rules, not a comparison between platforms or events.

The sample covers all three saved markets from this one Polymarket event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The provider's selection note and sample warning state that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1]. Volume is not reported here as a measure of liquidity or trader count, so no conclusions about either can be drawn.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it contains no recent news about Kittle, his team, or the season. It also contains no information about how well these prices have forecast outcomes historically. Because the market resolves on NFL data or consensus reporting, the final count depends on events after the snapshot, which are not part of this evidence. A reader comparing these contracts with markets on other platforms should check that the wording, thresholds, and close times match before comparing prices.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: George Kittle 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.