CA-06 House Election Winner
PM $92.1K
1
2
CA-06 House Election Winner
PM $92.1K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democratic Party at 96.5%.
Polymarket
- Democratic Party96.5%
- Republican Party1.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $92.1K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks which party will win the CA-06 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. Each market in the snapshot is a separate yes or no contract on one party. A candidate's party is set by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either major party is assigned to the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus [1]. The market resolves on a consensus of credible reporting, and where there is ambiguity, on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules state that the midterm elections take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The listed end time is a provider field. It is not an announced results date, and the rules tie resolution to when the House elections are conclusively called.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. The source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T21:03:43.150Z [1]. These prices describe that observation and do not show current conditions when you read this.
At observation, the Democratic Party contract showed a Yes price of 0.9405 and a No price of 0.0595 [1]. The Republican Party contract showed a Yes price of 0.0185 and a No price of 0.9815 [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two markets are separate contracts, so their Yes prices should not be averaged or combined into one estimate. Their Yes prices sum to 0.959 at this observation. That gap does not by itself indicate an opportunity, because the evidence does not show depth, fees, or whether the two contracts could be traded together.
Both saved markets for this event are included, and the coverage record does not flag a partial sample [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are. It also does not report trader counts or liquidity, and volume is not a measure of either. The sample states that all saved markets are included, but it does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome, so the two-party view reflects this saved event only. The rules' caucus-based assignment for candidates without a major-party affiliation may matter in some races, but the evidence does not identify such a candidate in CA-06. Prices can change after the observation time.
References
- Polymarket: CA-06 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia market asks which major party will hold the California 6th congressional district (CA-06) seat in the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. The contract is listed on Polymarket under the event title "CA-06 House Election Winner" [1]. It has two related contracts in the saved sample: one asks whether the Democratic Party will win the seat, and the other asks whether the Republican Party will win it [1]. The rules tie resolution to the party of the candidate who wins the seat, not to a named individual. The rules state that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the provider's listed closing time, not a record that the election has been decided. The contract's resolution depends on how the race is called under the rules, so a closing time alone does not establish the outcome. The contract also explains how a candidate's party is assigned. A candidate's party is determined by the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either major party is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at that same time [1]. The rules also set the resolution method. The market resolves based on the election result as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting [1]. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
Historical Context
The broader 2026 California House contest sits within a redrawn map. A Wikipedia article on the 2026 California House elections describes the state's 52 congressional districts, one for each seat, and says the November 3, 2026 elections will coincide with other House, Senate, and state and local contests [2]. It also states that the passage of Proposition 50 in 2025 significantly altered many districts, and that the primary elections took place on June 2, 2026 [2]. This is background on the election cycle as described in that source. The supplied sources do not describe the CA-06 candidate field or its history beyond the contract rules.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which major party wins one specific U.S. House seat in California's 2026 midterm elections. Its rules define the winner by party rather than by candidate, and they provide a method for assigning independent or non-major-party candidates to a party for the purpose of the contract [1]. Because the market uses the consensus of credible reporting, with the FEC as a fallback when the picture is unclear, the resolution standard is set out in the rules rather than decided by the price [1]. Prices shown for the two contracts are provider snapshots from the saved sample. They are not executable quotes and not verified probabilities. The saved sample includes both the Democratic and Republican contracts for this event, so the two sides can be compared within the same provider event [1]. Volume and trading activity are separate from liquidity and do not indicate how many people traded.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the CA-06 contract resolve on?
It resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 seat in the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. The Democratic and Republican contracts each ask whether that party wins the seat [1].
How is a candidate's party decided for this market?
The party is based on the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either major party is assigned based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that time [1].
What source decides the result if reporting is unclear?
If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. Otherwise, the result is taken from a consensus of credible reporting [1].
Does the closing date mean the winner is known?
No. The listed end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z is the provider's closing time [1]. The rules describe the election as taking place on November 3, 2026, and resolution depends on how the seat is conclusively called under the rules [1].
Does a price in this market mean the probability of a party winning?
The saved prices are provider snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They show the recorded price at the observation time for each contract and should not be read as a confirmed chance of a result.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same question, fine print differs
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-49 House election?
Kalshi: Will a Republican win the House race for CA-49?
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Will the Republican Party win the CA-49 House seat?
Kalshi: Will a Republican win the House race for CA-49?
Same question, fine print differs
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
CA-41 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $23.3K · K 11.7K contractsWill the Democratic Party win the CA-41 House seat?
Kalshi: Will Democratic win the House race for CA-41?
Same question, fine print differs
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-41 House election?
Kalshi: Will Republican win the House race for CA-41?
Same question, fine print differs
Will the Republican Party win the CA-41 House seat?
Kalshi: Will Republican win the House race for CA-41?
Same question, fine print differs
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.