Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Any comparison with Bitcoin prices on other venues or in spot markets therefore uses different measurement rules.
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T22:45:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time in the contract data, not evidence of when resolution has occurred or been confirmed.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z and retrieved at 2026-10-31T11:34:13.920Z [1]. The observation is about two and a half hours before the retrieval time, so these figures describe the market at the observation time only. They do not describe current conditions.
At that observation, the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and the saved data offers no explanation for it.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and it is complete for that event: the coverage record shows 1 of 1 markets included with no partial sample [1]. Because only the two stated outcomes exist here, no omitted outcome affects the comparison. The saved data includes no volume figures, so nothing here speaks to liquidity or trading activity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include any later price, any resolution result, or any information about the Bitcoin price path during the 6:30PM to 6:45PM ET window. It also does not show whether other platforms list comparable contracts or how their rules compare. A price on a different contract, even one with a similar title, should not be treated as an arbitrage signal without checking its resolution source, time window, and close time.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Bitcoin price contract listed on Polymarket under the title "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET" [1]. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price over a fifteen-minute window will finish at or above where it started. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution data comes from Chainlink, specifically its BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval. The rules state that the market is about the price in that Chainlink stream for the BTC/USD pair, not about any other source or spot market [1]. This matters because a trader reading a price on an exchange or aggregator may see different figures from the one that determines the outcome. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-31T22:45:00Z [1]. The title describes the window in Eastern Time, while the listed end time is given in UTC. The listed end time is the scheduled close recorded by the provider, and the contract rules define how the outcome is determined. The rules themselves do not establish what the Bitcoin price will be during the window.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over one fifteen-minute window, using a time-weighted average rather than a single spot print. Comparing the average over the window with the price at the start of the window means that a brief spike or drop near the end does not decide the outcome on its own [1]. The stated price snapshot for this contract was Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are observed prices at a specific time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated time range, as generated by Chainlink, is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price feed is used for resolution?
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval. The rules say the market concerns that stream and not other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the market consider prices from exchanges or other sources?
No. The provider's rules state that the market is about the price according to the Chainlink TWAP data stream for BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does this contract end?
The listed end time recorded by the provider is 2026-10-31T22:45:00Z [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance that Bitcoin goes up?
The saved snapshot showed Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 at the observation time [1]. These figures are price snapshots from one moment and are not verified probabilities or executable quotes.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.