Vila Nova FC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino
PM $124.9K
2
6
Vila Nova FC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino
PM $124.9K
2
6
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $124.9K
Reported volume · provider units
6
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Sunday, October 18, 2026 between Vila Nova FC and Grêmio Novorizontino.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Polymarket data covers two linked events for the Brazil Serie B game between Vila Nova FC and Grêmio Novorizontino [1][2]. The full-time event has three markets: "Will Vila Nova FC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino end in a draw?", "Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-10-18?", and "Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-10-18?" [1]. The halftime event has three markets on the result at halftime, which the provider describes as covering "the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time" [2].
The wording differs across contracts. The win contracts name a calendar date, while the draw contract does not. The halftime contracts resolve on the first half, not the final score. Each event lists an end time of 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z [1][2].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z, and the supplied material was retrieved at 2026-10-19T00:12:43.253Z [1][2]. Both observation times fall after the listed end time, yet the markets were still reported as "active." The excerpts describe the game as "upcoming," which reflects the provider's text rather than the date of retrieval. The prices therefore describe a moment after the listed close, not a live market.
At that observation, the full-time Yes prices were 0.9995 for a draw and 0.0005 for each team win [1]. For halftime, the Yes prices were 0.9995 for Grêmio Novorizontino leading and 0.0005 each for a halftime draw and a Vila Nova FC lead [2]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They do not establish how the game ended, and they should not be read as one market's price moving relative to another's.
Coverage is complete for this saved sample: each event shows three of three markets included, and the sample is not marked partial [1][2]. The sample describes only the saved provider events, not every possible outcome in the real world.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not include the final score, the halftime score, or any settlement outcome, so it cannot confirm which contract resolved Yes. It also does not explain any price movement or state how many traders were involved. Volume data is not included in the excerpted markets, and nothing here indicates liquidity. Because the halftime and full-time contracts measure different things, their prices should not be compared as if they were alternative forms of the same bet.
References
- Polymarket: Vila Nova FC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
- Polymarket: Vila Nova FC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino - Halftime Result. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
The markets in this set relate to a Brazil Serie B match between Vila Nova FC and Grêmio Novorizontino, which the provider lists as scheduled for Sunday, October 18, 2026 [1]. Two Polymarket events are included. The full-time event contains three markets: whether the match ends in a draw, whether Vila Nova FC wins on 2026-10-18, and whether Grêmio Novorizontino wins on that date [1]. The halftime event also contains three markets: whether Grêmio Novorizontino leads at halftime, whether the score is a draw at halftime, and whether Vila Nova FC leads at halftime [2]. The halftime markets cover the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time [2]. The listed end time for every market in this set is 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z [1][2]. This is the closing time the provider lists for each contract. It is not a record of how any market resolved, and the supplied material does not show a resolution outcome for either event [1][2]. The provider status for both events was active when the event data was saved [1][2]. At the saved observation time, the Yes outcome for the full-time draw market was priced at 0.9995, while the Yes outcomes for the two full-time win markets were each priced at 0.0005 [1]. In the halftime event, the Yes outcome for Grêmio Novorizontino leading at halftime was priced at 0.9995, and the Yes outcomes for a halftime draw and for Vila Nova FC leading at halftime were each priced at 0.0005 [2]. These figures are snapshot prices. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities [1][2].
Why It Matters
Each contract is a yes or no question about a specified result. The full-time markets ask about the final result of the match on 2026-10-18, and the halftime markets ask about the score at the end of the first half as defined by the provider [1][2]. The provider's listed end time is the point at which trading for these contracts is listed to close [1][2]. Because these markets are priced as yes or no contracts, the Yes price is the price of the Yes outcome at the moment of the snapshot. It reflects the contract's trading level then, not a confirmed likelihood of the event [1][2]. The provider's volume data is not included in this set, so the prices cannot be used to judge how many traders are involved or how deep the market is [1][2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Yes price on these markets show?
The Yes price is the snapshot price of the Yes outcome in the saved provider data. For example, the Yes price for a full-time draw was 0.9995 at the observation time [1]. It is not an executable quote, and it is not a verified probability [1].
When do these markets close?
The provider lists an end time of 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z for all six markets in the saved set [1][2]. That is the listed closing time. The supplied material does not show how or when any market resolved [1][2].
How are the full-time and halftime markets different?
They come from two separate Polymarket events with different event identifiers [1][2]. The full-time markets concern the match result on 2026-10-18, while the halftime markets concern the result within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time [1][2].
Does this sample include every possible outcome for the match?
No. All saved markets for these two events are included, but the provider's sample warning states that this does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome [1][2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.