BNB Up or Down - October 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers the BNB price in a single five-minute window, "BNB Up or Down - October 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET" [1]. According to the saved rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink data stream, not general market prices. The rules state that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A different BNB price, exchange quote, or contract on another platform could therefore reflect different terms.
The listed end time is 2026-10-16T15:15:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's scheduled close, not a confirmed resolution. The evidence does not show a resolution result.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation is from 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T17:35:20.262Z [1]. The price data is therefore a past snapshot, not a live reading at the time you read this.
The snapshot shows "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The gap is small, and the snapshot does not indicate how much could be traded at either price. The status was recorded as active [1].
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record reports one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. The evidence does not show any other outcomes in this event.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices were set at these levels, and it does not show current prices, trading depth, or the number of participants. Volume and liquidity are not included in this snapshot.
The evidence also does not include the actual BNB TWAP values for the window or the starting price, so it cannot show whether the contract will resolve "Up" or "Down."
If you compare this with a similar BNB contract on another platform, check the exact title, timing window, and resolution source first. Differences in those terms, as well as in listed close times, can make the contracts non-comparable even when their names look alike.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a short-window price contract on BNB against USD, titled "BNB Up or Down - October 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET." It is listed on Polymarket as an active event with a listed end time of 2026-10-16T15:15:00.000Z [1]. The contract asks whether BNB's price over that five-minute window will move up or down, but the rules define "up" and "down" in a specific technical way. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The comparison is therefore between an average price across the window and the starting price, not between the price at the start and the price at the end. The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, identified in the rules as the 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A trader following a different exchange's quoted price would therefore not be reading the same measure that determines the outcome. The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13Z and retrieved at 17:35 UTC the same day. At that observation time, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot values from a single saved moment. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of the outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP over the 11:10 to 11:15 AM ET window is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses an average over the window rather than a single closing print, a brief move near the end of the window may affect the average differently than the endpoint price. The listed end time of 2026-10-16T15:15:00.000Z marks when the event's stated window closes, but the rules describe the resolution condition, and the provided evidence does not describe any separate settlement announcement [1]. For a reader, the main point is that the question is narrow and mechanical. It is about one data stream, one averaging window, and one comparison with a starting price. Prices on the platform reflect trading in that contract at the time they were observed, and they should not be read as a forecast of BNB's market price beyond the rules of this contract.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this market resolve to Up?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB from Chainlink over the 11:10 to 11:15 AM ET range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price source determines the outcome?
The outcome is based on Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say other sources or spot markets are not used for resolution [1].
Are the displayed prices the chance that BNB goes up?
No. The saved prices were 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down at the observation time [1]. They are snapshots of the contract's price at that time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
When does the listed window end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-16T15:15:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
