Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12AM ET
PM $0
1
1
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T03:00:06.030Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract is a Polymarket event titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12AM ET" in the Crypto category. It resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins at the time in the title. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT, and the rules state that "this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs" [1].
The rules list an end time of 2026-11-02T06:00:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time, not the moment the outcome is known. The rules also say the open and close will be used "once the data for that candle is finalized" [1], so the actual resolution depends on that finalized candle data. Readers comparing this contract with a similarly titled market on another platform should check the exact wording, the named exchange and pair, and the listed close time, since any of these can differ.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record shows two outcomes, "Up" at 0.5 and "Down" at 0.5 [1]. The provider observation time is 2026-11-01T03:00:06.030Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-01T05:08:07.391Z [1]. These prices describe that observed moment only. They are not a live quote, an executable price, or a verified probability, and they do not show what the market looks like now.
Coverage for this event includes one market, and the saved sample is marked complete, with no partial sample [1]. Because the sample contains only the two outcomes of this single binary contract, no outcome is omitted from it. The saved record does not include volume or trader counts, so this snapshot cannot tell you how liquid the market was or how many participants took part.
The equal prices mean the snapshot priced the two outcomes at the same level. This is a description of the recorded numbers only. The evidence does not explain why the prices were equal.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the final Binance candle data, so the outcome is not known from these sources. It also does not contain any post-snapshot prices, news, or explanations for price changes. The source states that "this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT" [1], so the result depends on that one pair and not on any other exchange.
The sample warning notes that these saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. For this binary contract, that caveat matters mainly for comparison: a price on a different contract or platform should not be treated as a comparable quote unless its rules match.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T03:00:06.030Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-term binary market on the direction of Bitcoin's price, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12AM ET." It is listed in the crypto category on Polymarket, and its rules are based on a single one-hour candle [1]. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price will rise or fall over that candle, using the BTC/USDT pair on Binance as the reference [1]. The outcome is decided by comparing two prices for the same candle. If the closing price is greater than or equal to the opening price, the market resolves to "Up." If the closing price is lower than the opening price, it resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the comparison is between a candle's own open and close, the contract does not depend on where Bitcoin traded before that candle began or after it ended. The rules specify that the open and close shown at the top of Binance's one-hour chart for the relevant candle are used, and only once that candle's data is finalized [1]. The contract is therefore not settled at the moment the candle ends. It waits for the exchange data to be finalized. The rules also limit the reference to Binance's BTC/USDT pair. Prices on other exchanges or other trading pairs are not used, even if they differ [1]. Readers comparing this contract with Bitcoin prices quoted elsewhere should keep that difference in mind. The contract's listed end time is 2026-11-02T06:00:00Z, and the provider's status at retrieval was active [1]. That listed end time describes when the contract is set to close, and it should not be read as the moment the result is known or paid out. As of the retrieval time, the provider had not recorded a resolution.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow question: whether the Binance BTC/USDT one-hour candle beginning at the time in the title closes at or above its opening price [1]. Its value comes from that specific definition. A reader needs to know the exchange, the pair, the candle, and the tie rule to interpret the contract correctly. The rule that a close equal to the open resolves "Up" matters for a candle that finishes flat [1]. The contract's prices reflect how traders value these outcomes at a given moment, which is a market snapshot rather than a verified forecast of Bitcoin's direction.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract compares the close and open of the BTC/USDT one-hour candle that begins at the time shown in the title. It resolves to "Up" if the close is greater than or equal to the open, and to "Down" otherwise [1].
Which exchange and trading pair are used?
The resolution source is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair. The rules state that prices on other exchanges or other trading pairs are not used [1].
When are the open and close values taken?
The rules say the close and open displayed for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized [1]. The contract's listed end time is 2026-11-02T06:00:00Z [1].
Does the listed end time mean the market has already resolved?
No. The source lists the end time and shows the market as active at retrieval, and the resolution depends on finalized candle data from Binance [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
PM $27.1Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.