Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event compares two Polymarket contracts on the HI-02 U.S. House seat. One asks whether the Democratic Party will win the seat, and the other asks whether the Republican Party will. The event page says the market "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections," and that the midterm elections "will take place on November 3, 2026" [1].

Party is determined by a candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when House elections are conclusively called. A candidate without such an affiliation is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus [1]. Resolution follows "a consensus of credible reporting," and if that is ambiguous, the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission govern [1]. The listed end time for both contracts is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:30:47.327Z [1]. These prices describe that observed moment only and are not a live quote.

• Democratic Party contract: Yes at 0.9565 and No at 0.0435 [1].
• Republican Party contract: Yes at 0.036 and No at 0.964 [1].

The two contracts resolve on different questions, so their prices are not averaged or compared as a single probability field. Their Yes prices do not need to sum to one, and the gap between them is not an arbitrage signal. Prices are not executable quotes, and this evidence does not show depth, spreads, or trading volume. It also does not explain why prices stood where they did at observation time.

What remains uncertain

The sample covers both saved markets for this event. The coverage record reports two total markets, two included, and no partial sample [1]. That does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for the seat. The evidence also contains no information on candidates, polling, recent news, or any result beyond the contract text.

Contract close time is not the same as the election result or the resolution date. The listed end time is in UTC and falls on November 4, 2026, while the contract text names November 3 as the election day [1]. Resolution depends on when the House elections are conclusively called, so the timing of an official result may differ from the listed end time.

References

1. Polymarket: HI-02 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.