Champions League Final Qualifiers
PM $74.64M · K 6.31M contracts
5
180
PM $74.64M · K 6.31M contracts
5
180
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Nov 15, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Arsenal is priced at 13.5% on Polymarket and 13.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ArsenalSame question, fine print differs | 13.5% | 13.5% | 0.0 pts |
| Manchester CitySame question, fine print differs | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0 pts |
| LiverpoolSame question, fine print differs | 3.6% | 3.5% | 0.1 pts |
| AtleticoSame question, fine print differs | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9 pts |
| InterSame question, fine print differs | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.3 pts |
| ComoSame question, fine print differs | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Aston VillaSame question, fine print differs | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.3 pts |
| Real BetisSame question, fine print differs | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $74.64M · K 6.31M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
180
Saved contracts
20
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 15, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers three related Champions League markets from different providers. Two ask who will win the 2026-27 competition. The third asks which teams will reach the Final. Each contract pays out on its own wording, so the three should not be read as one question.
The Kalshi Final Qualifiers event resolves "Yes" if a listed team qualifies for the Final, and its excerpt says that "if they qualify but do not end up competing, the market will still resolve to Yes" [1]. The Polymarket event resolves according to "the team that wins the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship," and a listed team resolves "No" if it becomes impossible for that team to win [2]. The Kalshi Champions League Winner event resolves "Yes" if the listed team is the 2026-27 winner [3].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, and the source retrieval time is Nov 14, 2026, 3:52 AM UTC. These prices describe that moment only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Each event includes 12 of 36 total markets, so this is a partial sample. The omitted markets are not shown with prices, and a missing team does not imply a lower price. The sample is also ranked by Yes price within each provider event, so it is not a complete field.
Barcelona appears in all three events, but its prices answer different questions. On Kalshi Final Qualifiers, its Yes price is 0.35. On Polymarket's winner market it is 0.235, and on Kalshi's winner market it is 0.215. These are separate contracts with different wording and listed end dates, so the gaps are not an arbitrage opportunity.
Listed close times also differ. Some Polymarket winner contracts list May 30, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC and others list Jun 20, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC. Kalshi's Final Qualifiers markets list May 20, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC, and Kalshi's winner markets list Jun 19, 2027, 9:00 PM UTC.
Reported volume is not liquidity or a count of traders. Polymarket reports $73,973,071, Kalshi Final Qualifiers reports 5,791 contracts, and Kalshi Winner reports 6,259,944 contracts. These units differ, so they should not be added or compared.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not show recent news or how well these markets have forecast past results. Kalshi's event excerpts list the end time as "not supplied," so the close times above come from individual market records. The Polymarket excerpt says a winner could be "Other" if the season is cancelled or postponed past its stated date [2]. Prices may have changed after the retrieval time.
References
- Kalshi: Champions League Final Qualifiers. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.
- Polymarket: UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.
- Kalshi: Champions League Winner. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.
Snapshot observed Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This sample covers three provider events that ask related but different questions. The Kalshi Champions League Final Qualifiers contract resolves to Yes if a named team qualifies for the Final, and a team that qualifies but does not compete still resolves Yes [1]. The Polymarket contracts resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 championship. A listed team that becomes unable to win resolves to No, and a cancelled or postponed season resolves to Other [2]. The Kalshi winner contract resolves to Yes if the named team wins the 2026-27 title [3].
Because the wording differs, a qualifier contract and a champion contract measure different events. Their prices should not be read as one probability.
Reading the snapshot
The Polymarket and Kalshi sources were observed at Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, and the evidence was retrieved at 03:52:41Z UTC [1][2][3]. These are past snapshots, not live quotes, and they are not executable prices.
In the Kalshi qualifier event, the highest included Yes prices are 0.35 for Barcelona, 0.34 for PSG, and 0.28 for Arsenal [1]. In the Polymarket champion event, Barcelona is at 0.235 and PSG at 0.185 [2]. In the Kalshi winner event, Barcelona is at 0.215 and PSG at 0.185 [3]. The Kalshi and Polymarket champion prices differ, but their rules, close times, and listed end dates are not identical. That difference does not by itself indicate an opportunity.
Listed close times also vary. The Kalshi qualifier markets show an end date of May 20, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC [1]. Polymarket markets show May 30, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC for some teams and Jun 20, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC for others [2]. Kalshi winner markets show Jun 19, 2027, 9:00 PM UTC [3].
Reported volumes use different units. The sources report 5,791 contracts for the Kalshi qualifiers [1], $73,973,071 for Polymarket [2], and 6,259,944 contracts for the Kalshi winner event [3]. These figures should not be added or compared, and volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader count.
What remains uncertain
Each event includes only 12 of 36 markets, so every sample is partial [1][2][3]. Markets were selected by highest Yes price, so omitted teams cannot be assumed to be priced lower. Rankings should not be compared across events. The evidence does not explain why prices moved, does not show how many traders agree, and does not establish forecasting accuracy. No contract has resolved in this evidence, so the snapshot does not show any outcome.
References
- Kalshi: Champions League Final Qualifiers. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.
- Polymarket: UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.
- Kalshi: Champions League Winner. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 14, 2026 UTCThis article was written from an earlier market snapshot and may be out of date. Use the dated market data and provider rules above for current information.
Overview
The UEFA Champions League is an annual club football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs [2]. The competition begins with a round robin league phase that determines which teams advance to two-legged knockout rounds, and it ends with a single-leg final [2]. Wikipedia describes it as the most-watched club competition in the world and the most prestigious club competition in European football [2]. The Kalshi event titled Champions League Final Qualifiers concerns the 2026-27 edition of the competition [1]. Each market in the event asks whether a named club will qualify for the Final [1]. According to the contract rules, a market resolves to Yes if the team qualifies for the Final, and the outcome is determined by qualification itself. If a team qualifies but does not end up competing, the market still resolves to Yes [1]. The rules also state that the market closes and expires early if the event occurs [1]. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated with the Governing League [1]. The saved provider data for this event was observed at 2026-11-11 03:00 UTC, when the event status was active [1]. In that snapshot, the highest Yes prices among the included markets were Barcelona at 0.355 and Paris Saint-Germain at 0.335, followed by Arsenal, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich at about 0.28 to 0.285 [1]. Lower Yes prices in the sample included Manchester City at 0.15, Liverpool at 0.105, Atletico at 0.075, and Aston Villa and Feyenoord at 0.05 each [1]. These figures describe only the twelve markets included in the sample, which was drawn from a saved event containing 36 markets [1]. They are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The contract data lists an end date of May 20, 2027 for each market [1]. That date appears in the contract rules and market records. It is not an announced date for the Final, and the provider's listed end time was not supplied [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a named club qualifies for the Final of the 2026-27 Champions League, recorded as a Yes or No outcome [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to qualification rather than to actual participation in the match, a club that qualifies and does not compete would still resolve the market to Yes [1]. The competition's structure, with a league phase followed by knockout rounds and a single-leg final, explains why qualification is a distinct milestone before the Final itself [2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-11 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a club have to play in the Final for its market to resolve Yes?
No. The rules state that the market resolves to Yes if the team qualifies, and a team that qualifies but does not end up competing still resolves the market to Yes [1].
Does the May 20, 2027 date mean the Final is scheduled for that day?
No. The contract data lists that date as the market end date, but the provider's listed end time was not supplied, and the sources do not give an announced date for the Final [1].
Are the prices in these markets probabilities?
Not verified probabilities. The prices are snapshots from the provider, not executable quotes, and the sample covers only part of the event [1].
Why does the sample show only 12 clubs?
The saved event contains 36 markets, and the sample includes up to 12 per event. Markets were ordered by finite Yes price, highest first, and then by volume [1]. The sample does not show the full field, and it does not support rankings across other events or providers [1].
Is this market connected to UEFA?
The sources identify UEFA as the organiser of the Champions League [2]. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorised, endorsed by, or officially connected with the Governing League [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
20
Largest saved gap: 0.9 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
