Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?

Total Volume

$5.81K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?

Vol

$5.81K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.81K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.81K

100%

Kalshi leads

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6 markets tracked

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.0%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.0%?	Kalshi	93%
Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.5%?	Kalshi	80%
Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.0%?	Kalshi	68%
Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.5%?	Kalshi	60%
Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 3.0%?	Kalshi	38%
Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 3.5%?	Kalshi	29%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

93%

Top Probability

$5.81K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

December 2026 If U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026, measured by the year-over-year percentage change in the CPI Food at home index, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The underlying is the unadjusted 12-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, CPI-U, U.S. city average, for “Food at home,” as first published by BLS for December 2026. The published percentage change will be used directly, without recalculating it from index levels. Subsequent re

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 2026

If U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026, measured by the year-over-year percentage change in the CPI Food at home index, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The underlying is the unadjusted 12-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, CPI-U, U.S. city average, for “Food at home,” as first published by BLS for December 2026. The published percentage change will be used directly, without recalculating it from index levels. Subsequent re

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026, measured by the year-over-year percentage change in the CPI Food at home index, is above 

3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The underlying is the unadjusted 12-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consum"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 3.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 3.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $846
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $500
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?

Volume$5.81K

Markets6

6 of 6

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KALSHI

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.0¢No 7.0¢

KALSHISports

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.0%?

If U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026, measured by the year-over-year percentage change in the CPI Food at home index, is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The underlying is the unadjusted 12-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consum

KALSHI

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢

KALSHISports

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.5%?

If U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026, measured by the year-over-year percentage change in the CPI Food at home index, is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The underlying is the unadjusted 12-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consum

KALSHI

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.0¢No 32.0¢

KALSHISports

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.0%?

If U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026, measured by the year-over-year percentage change in the CPI Food at home index, is above 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The underlying is the unadjusted 12-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consum

KALSHI

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢

KALSHISports

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.5%?

If U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026, measured by the year-over-year percentage change in the CPI Food at home index, is above 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The underlying is the unadjusted 12-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consum

KALSHI

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 3.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.5¢No 62.5¢

KALSHISports

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 3.0%?

If U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026, measured by the year-over-year percentage change in the CPI Food at home index, is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The underlying is the unadjusted 12-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consum

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61¢

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Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.0%?

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Events (1)

Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?

Markets (6)

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.0%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.0%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.5%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.5%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.0%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.0%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.5%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.5%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 3.0%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 3.0%?

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Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.0%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.0%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.0%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.5%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 1.5%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.0%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.0%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.5%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 2.5%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 3.0%?

Will U.S. grocery inflation for December 2026 be above 3.0%?

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