Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract, "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if "the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the contract states that it concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:35:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed close time, not a record of how the contract has resolved. The supplied evidence does not show a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T10:00:18.096Z [1]. These are two different times, and both are earlier than the listed close. Prices in this record describe the market at the observation time only. They are not live quotes for the present moment.
The saved prices are Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. Because these are snapshot values, they should not be treated as executable prices, verified probabilities, or a measure of liquidity. The supplied record does not include volume or trader counts, so it cannot show how deep the market was.
Coverage is complete for this event. The record lists one market, with one included, and it is not marked as a partial sample [1]. The saved event contains only this binary Up or Down pair, so no outcome is omitted from the sample. The source also notes that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. For this binary contract, the two listed outcomes are the only ones in the record.
Comparisons with other Dogecoin contracts require care. A contract with a different time window, data source, or close time measures something different, even if the title looks similar. Differing prices across such contracts should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity without checking their rules.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the price sits at 0.5, and it does not show any news or events that affected the market. It also does not confirm the final TWAP value, the starting price for the interval, or the resolution result. Anyone using this snapshot should check the current status and resolution source directly.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window crypto contract on Polymarket titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET." The contract is tied to the price of Dogecoin measured against the US dollar over a five-minute window. It has two outcomes, Up and Down [1]. According to the source, the market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. If it is lower, the market resolves to Down [1]. The contract therefore compares an average over the window with the starting price, rather than comparing the price at the end of the window with the price at the start. The resolution source is Chainlink's DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, which the source identifies by a 60-second TWAP stream name [1]. The source states that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream and not any other data source or spot market [1]. Anyone reading the contract should therefore check the named data stream, not general price charts, to understand how the outcome is determined. The event record was observed at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T10:00:18.098Z. At that observation, the provider status was active and the listed end time was 2026-10-20T08:35:00.000Z [1]. The listed end time is the point at which the contract's measurement window closes under the provider's rules. Its entry in the record does not show that the outcome has been determined, and the record does not describe any resolution.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Dogecoin's price over a specific five-minute window, using a time-weighted average from a named Chainlink data stream rather than a single trade price [1]. Because the outcome depends on whether that average is at or above the price at the start of the window, the result reflects the contract's defined method. Readers who compare it with other Dogecoin price sources should note that the source limits resolution to the Chainlink stream [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up?
The market resolves Up if the Chainlink DOGE/USD time-weighted average price over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The source says the resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and that other sources or spot markets are not used for this contract [1].
When does the contract's measurement window close?
The listed end time in the record is 2026-10-20T08:35:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.