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Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs

Name: Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs
End: 2026-05-02T11:00:00.000Z

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Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs

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20 markets tracked

Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs

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Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs	Poly	88%
Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?	Poly	54%
Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?	Poly	52%
Game 3: Any Player Rampage?	Poly	52%
Game 2: Ends in Daytime?	Poly	51%
Game 3: Ends in Daytime?	Poly	51%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 Winner	Poly	51%
Game 1: Ends in Daytime?	Poly	51%
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?	Poly	51%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 Winner	Poly	50%
Games Total: Over/Under 2.5	Poly	50%
Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs Cloud Dawning (+1.5)	Poly	50%
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill?	Poly	28%
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill?	Poly	28%
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan?	Poly	24%
Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan?	Poly	24%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?	Poly	21%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?	Poly	21%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage?	Poly	9%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage?	Poly	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

88%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

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About This Event

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Yakult Brothers and Cloud Dawning in the ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 2 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yakult Brothers" if Yakult Brothers win the match against Cloud Dawning. This market will resolve to "Cloud Dawning" if Cloud Dawning win the match against Yakult Brothers. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Yakult Brothers and Cloud Dawning in the ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 2 at 1:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yakult Brothers" if Yakult Brothers win the match against Cloud Dawning.

This market will resolve to "Cloud Dawning" if Cloud Dawning win the match against Yakult Brothers.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market is about whether both teams kill Roshan at least once during Game 1. Roshan is a powerful neutral boss in Dota 2 that spawns at the start of the game and respawns 8–11 minutes after each death, dropping the Aegis of the Immortal and other valuable items.

This market will resolve to "Yes"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Game 1: Any Player Rampage?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Game 2: Ends in Daytime?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Game 2: Any Player Rampage?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Game 3: Ends in Daytime?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yakult Brothers: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [Cloud Dawning: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 Winner
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yakult Brothers: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [Cloud Dawning: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 Winner
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yakult Brothers: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [Cloud Dawning: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Games Total: Over/Under 2.5
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs Cloud Dawning (+1.5)
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yakult Brothers: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [Cloud Dawning: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Game 1: Ends in Daytime?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Game 3: Any Player Rampage?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs

Volume$0.00

Markets20

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POLYMARKET

Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 54.0¢No 46.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?

This market is about whether any player achieves an Ultra Kill during Game 3. In Dota 2, an Ultra Kill occurs when a single player kills 4 enemy heroes in rapid succession without dying. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player on either team achieves an Ultra Kill during Game 3. This market

POLYMARKET

Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?

This market is about whether both teams kill Roshan at least once during Game 3. Roshan is a powerful neutral boss in Dota 2 that spawns at the start of the game and respawns 8–11 minutes after each death, dropping the Aegis of the Immortal and other valuable items. This market will resolve to "Yes

POLYMARKET

Game 3: Any Player Rampage?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Game 3: Any Player Rampage?

This market is about whether any player achieves a Rampage during Game 3. In Dota 2, a Rampage occurs when a single player kills all 5 enemy heroes in rapid succession without dying. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player on either team achieves a Rampage during Game 3. This market will re

POLYMARKET

Game 2: Ends in Daytime?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Game 2: Ends in Daytime?

This market is about whether Game 2 ends during the daytime phase of the Dota 2 day/night cycle. In Dota 2, the day/night cycle alternates every 5 minutes (daytime runs from 0:00–5:00, 10:00–15:00, 20:00–25:00, and so on, while nighttime runs from 5:00–10:00, 15:00–20:00, 25:00–30:00, and so on). T

POLYMARKET

Game 3: Ends in Daytime?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Game 3: Ends in Daytime?

This market is about whether Game 3 ends during the daytime phase of the Dota 2 day/night cycle. In Dota 2, the day/night cycle alternates every 5 minutes (daytime runs from 0:00–5:00, 10:00–15:00, 20:00–25:00, and so on, while nighttime runs from 5:00–10:00, 15:00–20:00, 25:00–30:00, and so on). T

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41¢

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Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs

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Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs

Markets (20)

Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?

Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?

Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?

Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?

Game 3: Any Player Rampage?

Game 3: Any Player Rampage?

Game 2: Ends in Daytime?

Game 2: Ends in Daytime?

Game 3: Ends in Daytime?

Game 3: Ends in Daytime?

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Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs

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Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs

Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?

Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?

Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?

Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?

Game 3: Any Player Rampage?

Game 3: Any Player Rampage?

Game 2: Ends in Daytime?

Game 2: Ends in Daytime?

Game 3: Ends in Daytime?

Game 3: Ends in Daytime?

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