GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Name: Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$392.30K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Vol

$392.30K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $392.30K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $392.30K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Poly	97%
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Poly	96%
Will Donald Tusk visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Poly	69%
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Poly	34%
Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Poly	33%
Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Poly	22%
Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Poly	20%
Will Mark Carney visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Poly	20%
Will António Guterres visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Poly	17%
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$392.30K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market wi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market wi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or mar"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $301.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $123.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.45)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Donald Tusk visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $12.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $21.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $27.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $12.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Mark Carney visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $11.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will António Guterres visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $72.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $108.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics