BNB Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket market titled "BNB Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET" [1]. Its rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Any comparison with a contract on another platform should start with these conditions, since a differently worded contract may resolve on a different price measure.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:30:00.000Z [1]. This is the provider's listed close time, not a record of how or when the market resolved. The evidence does not include a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-19T04:22:56.317Z [1]. These are past snapshot times, not live prices. The saved quotes were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and the evidence does not explain it.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because this is the full saved event, the two outcomes can be read together. The evidence does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot cannot show the price after 03:00 UTC on October 19, 2026, or the final result. The evidence also does not identify any related markets on other platforms. Even if such markets exist, differences in their wording, reference prices, or close times would need to be checked before comparing them.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term crypto price contract listed on Polymarket. Its title is "BNB Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET" and it falls in the Crypto category [1]. The contract asks whether BNB's price over one 15-minute window will finish at or above where it started. The provider's rules say the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, which the rules link to [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A trader therefore needs to understand that the outcome depends on this specific data feed, which may not match prices shown on other exchanges or platforms. The saved record lists the event end time as 2026-10-20T02:30:00.000Z [1]. That is the close of the contract's window. It is a scheduled rule date, not a report that anything has happened. The record also shows that the market was active when the provider data was observed, but it does not show a final result [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over a defined 15-minute interval, as recorded by one named data feed. Because the comparison uses a time-weighted average across the window and the price at the window's start, the result depends on the average over the period rather than only the final moment [1]. The contract's rules state that other sources and spot markets do not determine the outcome [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract should treat it as a snapshot from the provider's data at one moment. A snapshot is not a live quote that can be executed, and it is not a verified probability of the outcome [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" resolution mean for this contract?
The market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What does "Down" mean?
If the TWAP over the stated range is below the price at the start of that range, the market resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source determines the result?
The rules name the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
When does the window end?
The saved record lists the end time as 2026-10-20T02:30:00.000Z [1]. This is the scheduled close of the window, and it does not confirm a resolved result.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.