Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

California's 28th District margin of victory

Total Volume

$201.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

California's 28th District margin of victory

Vol

$201.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $201.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $201.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?	Kalshi	88%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 29 percentage points?	Kalshi	77%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?	Kalshi	65%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 35 percentage points?	Kalshi	50%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 38 percentage points?	Kalshi	35%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 41 percentage points?	Kalshi	21%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 44 percentage points?	Kalshi	10%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 47 percentage points?	Kalshi	5%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 50 percentage points?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

88%

Top Probability

$201.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

California's 28th District If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 28th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California's 28th District margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** California's 28th District

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 28th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives  election in California's 28th District by 50 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $201
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 50 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 47 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 44 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 41 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 38 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 35 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 29 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 87.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

California's 28th District margin of victory

Volume$201.00

Markets9

9 of 9

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.9¢No 12.1¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 28th District by 26 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vo

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 29 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 29 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 28th District by 29 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vo

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 64.5¢No 35.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 28th District by 32 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vo

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 35 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 35 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 28th District by 35 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vo

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 38 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.5¢No 65.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 38 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 28th District by 38 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vo

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

39¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/T8Y-Mm" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="California's 28th District margin of victory"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

California's 28th District margin of victory

California's 28th District margin of victory

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

California's 28th District margin of victory

Markets (9)

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 29 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 29 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 35 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 35 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 38 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 38 percentage points?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

California's 28th District margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 29 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 29 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 35 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 35 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 38 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 28th District House election be at least 38 percentage points?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget