Highest temperature in Beijing on October 18?
PM $5.6K
1
11
Highest temperature in Beijing on October 18?
PM $5.6K
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $5.6K
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks for the highest temperature in Beijing on October 18, and each market is a single bracket within that question. The resolution source is NOAA data for Beijing Capital International Airport Station, specifically "the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day," measured in whole degrees Celsius [1]. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead. If neither source has data by then, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
Wording differs across the brackets. Most are single values, such as "Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 18?", but the endpoints are open-ended: "22°C or higher" and "12°C or below" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-18T12:00:00Z, while the rules say a market resolves once the first data point for the following date is published, or by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, whichever comes first [1]. The rules also say revisions are considered only until that first data point is published [1]. The listed end time and the rule-based resolution conditions should be read separately.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these markets at 2026-10-17T06:00:06Z, and our retrieval was at 2026-10-17T07:45:46Z [1]. These figures describe that earlier snapshot only. All 11 markets were recorded as active at observation, and the saved sample includes every market for this event, with no partial sampling noted [1].
The quoted Yes prices were 0.445 for 19°C, 0.39 for 18°C, 0.0755 for 17°C, and 0.055 for 20°C. The remaining brackets were each at or below 0.015 [1]. The Yes prices across all 11 brackets sum to about 0.998 in this snapshot. These are quoted prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they do not show how many traders hold each view.
The 19°C and 18°C brackets accounted for most of the quoted Yes weight in this snapshot. This is a description of the numbers, not an explanation of why they are priced that way.
What remains uncertain
The sampling notice states that the saved markets are all included for this event, but that does not establish that the provider lists every possible temperature outcome [1]. Any bracket not shown cannot be assumed to be priced lower.
This evidence does not show current prices, the prices at resolution, or the observed NOAA temperature for October 18. It also does not establish whether any correction period has begun, since the rules allow a market to stay open up to seven calendar days after a clearly erroneous release [1]. Because each bracket is a separate contract, price differences between them should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Highest temperature in Beijing on October 18?. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event asking for the highest temperature in Beijing on October 18, 2026 [1]. The contract resolves to the temperature range that contains the highest reading recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, measured in whole degrees Celsius [1]. Beijing is the capital of China, with more than 21.8 million residents, and it is governed as a provincial-level municipality [2]. The resolution source is the NOAA reading under the "Temp" column for all times on the observation day [1]. If NOAA data for that date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead [1]. If no data for the observation date exists by that deadline, the contract resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. Revisions to temperatures are considered until the first data point for the following date is published, after which changes are not considered [1]. The contract also addresses erroneous data. If the resolution source publishes a value that is clearly wrong because of a technical or operational error, or because of unauthorized interference, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days (ET) from the original release so a correction can be published [1]. If no corrected value appears in that window, Polymarket may issue a Clarification to decide whether the original value can be used or whether other action is needed [1]. The provider record lists an end time of 12:00 UTC on October 18, 2026 [1]. That field is part of the contract data. It is not an announced event or a recorded outcome. The contract states that it resolves once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, whichever comes first [1]. The saved market data was observed at 06:00 UTC on October 17, 2026, and retrieved at 07:45 UTC that day [1]. These are historical snapshots of prices, not live quotes. In that snapshot, the Yes price for 19°C was 0.445 and for 18°C was 0.39, while 17°C stood at 0.0755 and 20°C at 0.055 [1]. The remaining brackets were priced at 0.0105 or lower [1]. The eleven saved bracket markets are all included in this record, but the snapshot does not show trading volume, and the prices are not verified probabilities of any outcome.
Historical Context
The supplied sources do not give a history of this specific contract. The Beijing Wikipedia entry describes the city's location, its population of more than 21.8 million, and its status as China's capital [2]. A separate Wikipedia entry on 2023 heat waves describes heat waves that began across parts of the northern hemisphere in April 2023 and notes that July was the hottest month ever recorded [3]. That entry does not address Beijing specifically.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single daily figure: the highest temperature recorded at one specific station, reported in whole degrees Celsius [1]. Because each bracket is a separate market, the Yes prices show how the market priced each range at the observation time [1]. Those prices are useful for understanding the contract's structure, but they are snapshots and not guaranteed outcomes. The resolution rules, including the fallback source and the lowest-bracket default, determine how the result is settled [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly determines the result of this contract?
The result is based on the highest reading under the Temp column for NOAA data at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station for the observation date, rounded to whole degrees Celsius [1].
What happens if NOAA data is missing?
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used [1]. If no data for the date is available by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, whichever comes first [1].
Does a price on a bracket show the probability of that temperature?
The saved prices are snapshots from the provider and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. They show what the market displayed at the observation time, not what will happen.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
