Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Spanish general election: PSOE vote percent

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$11.32K

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Spanish general election: PSOE vote percent

Vol

$11.32K

Events

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Kalshi

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Kalshi

markets · $11.32K

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Volume DistributionTotal: $11.32K

100%

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10 markets tracked

Will PSOE receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will PSOE receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Kalshi	93%
Will PSOE receive at least 23% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Kalshi	89%
Will PSOE receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Kalshi	85%
Will PSOE receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Kalshi	76%
Will PSOE receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Kalshi	63%
Will PSOE receive at least 27% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Kalshi	51%
Will PSOE receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Kalshi	37%
Will PSOE receive at least 29% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Kalshi	21%
Will PSOE receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Kalshi	12%
Will PSOE receive at least 31% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

93%

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$11.32K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Vote Percent - PSOE If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is the share of the vote received by PSOE in the election to the Congress of Deputies. It is calculated as, total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution uses the official results published by the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Spanish general election: PSOE vote percent
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - PSOE

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is the share of the vote received by PSOE in the election to the Congress of Deputies. It is calculated as, total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution uses the official results published by the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is 31% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is the share of the vote received by PSOE in the election to the Congress of Deputies. I"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will PSOE receive at least 31% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will PSOE receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will PSOE receive at least 29% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will PSOE receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will PSOE receive at least 27% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will PSOE receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will PSOE receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will PSOE receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $9.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will PSOE receive at least 23% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will PSOE receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Spanish general election: PSOE vote percent

Volume$11.32K

Markets10

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KALSHI

Will PSOE receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will PSOE receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is 21% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is the share of the vote received by PSOE in the election to the Congress of Deputies. I

KALSHI

Will PSOE receive at least 23% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will PSOE receive at least 23% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is 23% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is the share of the vote received by PSOE in the election to the Congress of Deputies. I

KALSHI

Will PSOE receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will PSOE receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is 24% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is the share of the vote received by PSOE in the election to the Congress of Deputies. I

KALSHI

Will PSOE receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.0¢No 24.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will PSOE receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is 25% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is the share of the vote received by PSOE in the election to the Congress of Deputies. I

KALSHI

Will PSOE receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.5¢No 37.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will PSOE receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is 26% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is the share of the vote received by PSOE in the election to the Congress of Deputies. I

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/TFRClV" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Spanish general election: PSOE vote percent"></iframe>

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Spanish general election: PSOE vote percent

Spanish general election: PSOE vote percent

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Will PSOE receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

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Events (1)

Spanish general election: PSOE vote percent

Markets (10)

Will PSOE receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 23% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 23% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

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Will PSOE receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Spanish general election: PSOE vote percent

Will PSOE receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 21% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 23% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 23% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Will PSOE receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

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