ZCash Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
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ZCash Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of ZCash, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ZEC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/zec-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ZEC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract is a short-window price question on ZCash. Its title is "ZCash Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET" [1]. According to the rules, the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of ZCash, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is Chainlink's ZEC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ZEC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should therefore compare this contract only with other contracts that use the same window and the same data source. A price from a different asset, a different window, or a spot exchange is not comparable.
The listed end time is 2026-10-15T20:45:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's closing time, not an announced event or a resolution result.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:38:12.641Z [1]. These are different times. The observation reflects the provider's data when it was saved. The retrieval time is when this record was pulled. Neither time shows the current market.
The saved prices are Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. The sample contains one market from one platform, Polymarket, and the provider status was recorded as active [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They do not show what a buyer would pay now, and they do not establish how likely either outcome is. The data also gives no explanation for why the two prices are equal.
Because this is a single contract, no cross-platform comparison is possible here. Any difference in price between two different contracts would not by itself indicate an opportunity, since their windows, rules, and data sources may differ.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record states that the sample is complete for this event: one market was included out of one total, and the sample is not partial [1]. This does not show that the provider lists every possible outcome for the real-world question, which the sample warning notes explicitly [1].
The data does not show the price at the start of the window, the TWAP during the window, or the final result. It also does not show prices after the observation time. Readers should check the resolution source and the contract's closing status directly before relying on any outcome.
References
- Polymarket: ZCash Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto price contract on Polymarket titled "ZCash Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET" [1]. The contract asks whether the ZEC/USD price over one five-minute window will finish at or above where it started. The source states that the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of ZCash, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and otherwise resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution basis is narrow. The source says the contract concerns the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the ZEC/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A reader should therefore treat the Chainlink stream named in the rules as the reference for settlement, rather than an exchange quote seen elsewhere. The title's window runs from 4:40 PM to 4:45 PM Eastern Time. The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-15T20:45:00.000Z, which corresponds to 4:45 PM Eastern Daylight Time [1]. This listed end time is a contract parameter, not an announced event or a report that the contract has closed. The saved snapshot shows two outcomes, "Up" and "Down", each priced at 0.5 when observed [1]. That snapshot is a recorded value from one moment, not an executable quote, and it is not a verified probability of either outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of a short price window rather than a long-term view of ZCash. Because it compares a time-weighted average at the end of the window with the price at its start, a move that is brief or reverses late can still change the result, depending on how the Chainlink stream averages across the period [1]. The contract's rules tie the outcome to that specific data stream, so readers interpreting the market need to understand the TWAP method rather than only the headline price move [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of ZCash from Chainlink over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source is used for settlement?
The rules name the Chainlink ZEC/USD TWAP data stream and state that other sources or spot markets are not the reference [1].
When does the listed window end?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-15T20:45:00.000Z, matching 4:45 PM Eastern Daylight Time, the end of the title's window [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
