Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single short-window contract on the HYPE/USD price. According to the source, the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1] The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1]
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T08:15:00.000Z [1]. The title gives the window as 4:10AM to 4:15AM ET [1]. Readers should note that the listed end time is expressed in UTC, while the title uses Eastern Time. The contract closing time and the actual resolution are separate events, and the evidence does not report how or when this market was resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-27T09:53:28.738Z [1]. These values describe when the data was captured, not the present state of the market. At observation, the saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. Because these are snapshot prices, they are not executable quotes and should not be read as verified probabilities. The sample contains one market with no partial sampling, so there is no comparison with other contracts or platforms in this evidence.
The evidence does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each side.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show what happened after the observation time, whether the status is still active, or what the HYPE/USD TWAP value was during the window. It also does not explain why prices stood where they did. A contract price near 0.50 on each side only reflects that snapshot.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-interval price market on Polymarket about the HYPE/USD price of Hyperliquid, with a listed end time of 2026-10-28T08:15:00Z (4:15 AM ET on October 28). The title refers to the window from 4:10 AM to 4:15 AM ET. The market asks a yes or no style question about direction: whether the price over that window ends up at or above where it began. The rules say the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The resolution source is named as the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules also specify that only that Chainlink data stream counts for this asset pair, not other sources or spot markets [1]. This means a contract can resolve differently from what a trader sees on another exchange, because the outcome depends only on the named stream. Anyone reading the contract should check the stream's data rather than general price headlines. The saved snapshot for this contract was observed at 2026-10-27T09:00:05Z and lists the Up outcome at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Trading volume and the number of participants are not shown in this record, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of the Hyperliquid token's price, as defined by the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP stream, across one five-minute window [1]. Because the outcome compares the average price over the window with the price at its start, it does not simply ask whether the price is higher at the end than at the beginning of the window. The time-weighted average smooths the path of the price within the window, so a short spike near the end may move the average less than the closing price [1]. Users should read the rule's exact wording, which is the basis for resolution.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Up outcome mean for this contract?
Up means the time-weighted average price of Hyperliquid over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window, according to the rules [1].
What does the Down outcome mean?
Down applies when the rules' Up condition is not met, meaning the time-weighted average over the window is below the price at the start of the window [1].
Which price data decides the result?
The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Are the listed prices the chance that the outcome happens?
The saved prices are snapshots from a specific observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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