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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?

First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?
Vol

PM $1.7K

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Events

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Markets

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Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 94% on Polymarket.

Polymarket

  1. Yes94%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $1.7K

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

About This Event

The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics
LA-05 House election: Dan McKay vote percent (1st Round)

LA-05 House election: Dan McKay vote percent (1st Round)

K 31.4K contracts
Will Dan McKay receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-05 House election?Yes 96.5%
Will Dan McKay receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-05 House election?Yes 95%
Will Dan McKay receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-05 House election?Yes 89%
+15 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
LA-03 House election: Caleb Walker vote percent (1st Round)

LA-03 House election: Caleb Walker vote percent (1st Round)

K 22.0K contracts
Will Caleb Walker receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-03 House election?Yes 96.5%
Will Caleb Walker receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-03 House election?Yes 95.5%
Will Caleb Walker receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-03 House election?Yes 81.5%
+14 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round)

LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round)

K 17.9K contracts
Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Yes 96.5%
Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Yes 92%
Will Matt Gromlich receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Yes 73%
+13 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
LA-04 House election: Mike Johnson vote percent (1st Round)

LA-04 House election: Mike Johnson vote percent (1st Round)

K 3.5K contracts
Will Mike Johnson receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Yes 92%
Will Mike Johnson receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Yes 89%
Will Mike Johnson receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-04 House election?Yes 83%
+10 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
LA-03 House election: Clay Higgins vote percent (1st Round)

LA-03 House election: Clay Higgins vote percent (1st Round)

K 1.6K contracts
Will Clay Higgins receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-03 House election?Yes 87%
Will Clay Higgins receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-03 House election?Yes 80%
Will Clay Higgins receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-03 House election?Yes 70%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
LA-02 House election: Troy Carter vote percent (1st Round)

LA-02 House election: Troy Carter vote percent (1st Round)

K 6.2K contracts
Will Troy Carter receive at least 70% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-02 House election?Yes 85%
Will Troy Carter receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-02 House election?Yes 75%
Will Troy Carter receive at least 74% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 LA-02 House election?Yes 60%
+6 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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