Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T12:00:06.222Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract is titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET" and is listed on Polymarket [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The named resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the excerpt states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T09:45:00.000Z [1]. The rules describe how the window is measured. They do not show that the window has been reached or that a result has been published.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-25T12:00:06.222Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-25T12:42:31.483Z [1]. These are different times, and the prices belong to the observation time, not to the moment you read this. The market status in the record is "active" [1].
The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is 0.010, so at that observation time the quoted prices were close to even. The record does not include trade size, order book depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about how liquid the market is or how many participants hold each side.
The coverage record lists one market for this event, with no partial sample [1]. This is a single contract, so there is no cross-platform comparison here, and the prices should not be averaged with prices for differently worded contracts on other platforms.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not say what happened to the price after the observation time, whether the market is still open, or what the Hyperliquid price was during the window. It also does not explain any movement in the quoted prices. Because the TWAP is measured over a short window, a reader comparing this contract with a differently worded or differently timed one should check the exact window, the source, and the listed end time before drawing any conclusion from price differences.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T12:00:06.222Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-interval price contract on Polymarket titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET" [1]. The contract is a binary market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. Its subject is the price of HYPE/USD, the pair associated with Hyperliquid, over a five-minute window specified in the title [1]. The contract is built around a time-weighted average price rather than a single trade. The provider's rules state that the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The provider also specifies that only this Chainlink data stream governs resolution. The rules say the market concerns the price according to that stream, not other sources or spot markets [1]. The listed end time for this event is 2026-10-26T09:45:00.000Z [1]. That is a date from the contract rules and does not by itself indicate what has happened in the market.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average HYPE/USD price over one defined five-minute window ends at or above the price where the window began, as recorded by the Chainlink TWAP data stream [1]. Because the comparison uses an average across the window rather than a single point, the outcome depends on how the price moves within the interval, not only on its start and finish [1]. The contract is therefore narrowly defined: it reflects the Chainlink series named in the rules and does not reflect other exchanges or spot prices [1]. The market's prices show how participants were pricing the two outcomes at the time of the saved observation. The saved record lists the Up outcome and the Down outcome as the only two outcomes for this contract [1]. Those prices are snapshots and not executable quotes.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up?
The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink time-weighted average price of Hyperliquid over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What resolves the market to Down?
If the time-weighted average price over the specified range is not greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range, the market resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream named in the rules. The provider states the market concerns that stream and not other sources or spot markets [1].
Why does the contract use an average rather than a single price?
The contract compares a time-weighted average over the window with the starting price, so the result reflects the average across the five-minute range as defined by the provider [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.