Dayana Yastremska vs Kamilla Rakhimova: Set 2 Winner
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Dayana Yastremska vs Kamilla Rakhimova: Set 2 Winner
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 0 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Dayana Yastremska vs Kamilla Rakhimova Set 2 (Oct 16) If X wins set 2 in the Dayana Yastremska vs Kamilla Rakhimova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Ningbo Qualification Round 1, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Dayana Yastremska vs Kamilla Rakhimova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Ningbo Qualification Round 1. If the match does not occur, signaled by a ball being played, due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation, all before the match starts, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks. If a retirement occurs, all markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed will resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled will resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after the event occurs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T21:00:06.041Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event is the set 2 winner market for the Dayana Yastremska vs Kamilla Rakhimova match in the 2026 WTA Ningbo Qualification Round 1 [1]. The rules state: "If X wins set 2 in the Dayana Yastremska vs Kamilla Rakhimova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Ningbo Qualification Round 1, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Each player has a separate Yes or No contract, so the two markets are not interchangeable.
The rules also address disruptions. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market "will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks." [1] If a retirement occurs, markets that can be settled on completed play resolve accordingly, and others resolve to Fair Market Price at the Exchange's discretion [1].
The market records list an end date of 2026-10-31T02:00:00.000Z for both contracts [1]. The source excerpt, however, says "Listed end time: not supplied." [1] Because these statements conflict, treat the end date as a provider field to verify, not as confirmation of when play will finish.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T21:00:06.041Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T03:04:11.660Z [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they may differ from prices today.
At observation, the Yastremska market showed Yes at 0.515 and No at 0.485. The Rakhimova market showed Yes at 0.51 and No at 0.49 [1]. Within each contract, the two outcomes sum to 1.00. The two Yes prices belong to different contracts, so they should not be added together or treated as a combined probability. The 0.005 gap between them is small and reflects only this snapshot. The data does not explain it.
Coverage is limited to one saved provider event, with two of two markets included and partialSample set to false [1]. This means both markets for this event are present in the saved record. The source warns that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome." [1] No other outcomes from this match were supplied, so none should be inferred.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not establish the current price, the match schedule, whether play has begun, or the reason for any price movement. It also does not show trading volume, liquidity, or how many participants hold each position. Volume would not indicate liquidity or trader count in any case.
Because the contracts settle on different rules and close-time records conflict, a price difference between them should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity. The reader should check the live provider record and the rules before relying on any figure.
References
- Kalshi: Dayana Yastremska vs Kamilla Rakhimova: Set 2 Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T21:00:06.041Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi contract on set 2 of a women's professional tennis match between Dayana Yastremska and Kamilla Rakhimova, played in the 2026 WTA Ningbo Qualification Round 1 [1]. The contract asks whether a named player will win the second set. The market for Yastremska resolves to Yes if she wins set 2, and the separate market for Rakhimova works the same way for her [1]. Each market has a Yes and a No outcome, so the two markets are related but priced separately. The contract rules also explain what happens if the match does not go ahead as planned. If the match is cancelled before it starts, for example because of a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or another cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price under the rules [1]. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market stays open and closes after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks [1]. If a player retires, markets that can be settled unconditionally based on play already completed resolve on that basis, and any market that cannot be settled that way resolves to Fair Market Price, as determined at the Exchange's sole discretion [1]. The provider states that Kalshi is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or officially connected to the governing league, and that trademarks belong to their respective owners [1]. The event page describes the market as closing and expiring after the event occurs [1]. The provider record lists an end date of October 31, 2026, but the event page does not list an end time, so that date should be read as a provider field rather than an announced match date [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, specific result: which player wins the second set of one scheduled match in the 2026 WTA Ningbo Qualification Round 1 [1]. Because it is tied to one set rather than the full match, its outcome depends only on that set's result under the stated rules [1]. The cancellation, postponement, and retirement terms determine how the market settles if the match does not finish normally [1]. Traders reading the price should note that it is a snapshot from the provider at the time it was recorded, not an executable quote, and that the price reflects the market's view on the set rather than a verified probability.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome mean on these markets?
A Yes outcome on the Yastremska market means the contract resolves to Yes if she wins set 2 of the match. The Rakhimova market resolves to Yes if Rakhimova wins set 2 [1].
What happens if the match is postponed?
If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks [1].
What happens if a player retires during the match?
Markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed resolve accordingly. Any market that cannot be unconditionally settled resolves to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange [1].
What happens if the match is cancelled before it starts?
If the match does not occur, for example due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or another cancellation before the match starts, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with the rules [1].
Is this contract affiliated with the governing league?
No. The provider states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
