Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The contract is a margin-of-victory market for the 2026 TX-22 House election. It defines margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party, and the Republican and Democratic options are tied to the party nominees [1].

Several rules affect how the quoted brackets should be read. If the reported value falls exactly on a boundary, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties follow specific ballot-listing rules, and an unresolved tie between unlisted candidates resolves to "Other" [1]. The resolution source is the official certified count, and if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, and the source describes the election as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That date is taken from the contract text and is not a separately confirmed event announcement.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T00:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T01:51:53Z [1]. These are snapshot prices from that time, not current executable quotes. Within this snapshot, the Republican 15% to 20% bracket has the highest Yes price at 0.315, followed by 10% to 15% at 0.275 and 5% to 10% at 0.205 [1]. The Democratic win market is a separate contract with a Yes price of 0.032 [1].

The nine saved markets are all included in this sample, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. The sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Prices should therefore not be read as a complete distribution, and a bracket that is not shown cannot be assumed to have a particular price. Because the brackets are separate contracts, they should not be averaged or combined with prices from other platforms.

What remains uncertain

The snapshot does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not show trading activity, liquidity, or the number of participants. The prices are not verified probabilities. Differences between this contract and any similar contract elsewhere, including wording on boundaries, ties, or close times, can matter for comparison and should be checked against each contract's own rules before drawing conclusions. The election outcome is not known from the supplied evidence.

References

1. Polymarket: TX-22 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.