Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z. This event is archived. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied source is a Kalshi event page for a women's professional basketball game between Atlanta and Golden State, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026. The contract rule says that if Golden State "wins by more than X points in the 1st half" of that game, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The seven saved markets apply this rule at different thresholds: Golden State and Atlanta each at 1.5, 3.5, and 6.5 points, and Golden State alone at 9.5 points. The markets are titled with "over" wording, such as "Golden State wins the 1st half by over 1.5 points?", so the exact threshold wording in each title should be checked before comparing contracts [1].

The rules also set timing conditions. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market stays open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes, within 2 days. If the game is cancelled and not played, or is rescheduled more than 2 days out, all markets resolve to a fair price under the rules. The market also closes early if the event occurs [1].

Reading the snapshot

The saved data was observed on October 20, 2026 and retrieved on October 26, 2026 [1]. Treat these prices as a record of that earlier observation, not as current quotes. Each market lists a Yes and No price, and these pairs sum to 1.00 in the saved data, so each price is a snapshot of the contract's quoted value at that moment, not an executable quote or a verified probability.

Within the Golden State markets, the Yes price falls as the threshold rises, from 0.45 at 1.5 points to 0.17 at 9.5 points. Within the Atlanta markets, the Yes price falls from 0.445 at 1.5 points to 0.245 at 6.5 points, with the 3.5-point Atlanta contract at 0.345. These are comparisons between thresholds in the same event, not evidence of why prices were set at those levels.

The markets all list an end date of October 22, 2026, but the provider's listed end time for the event is recorded as not supplied [1]. That end date is a contract field, not evidence that any event is scheduled for that date.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show the game's result, whether it was played on schedule, or whether any market has resolved. It also does not show current prices, trading volume, or how many traders hold each position. The saved sample includes all seven markets from this one Kalshi event, and the saved data states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1]. Because only one platform is supplied, no cross-platform comparison is possible.

References

1. Kalshi: Atlanta vs Golden State: First Half Spread. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z.