Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T09:00:06.125Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The saved event is "Hong Kong Sixes: India vs Pakistan - Toss Match Double." It refers to "the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result" for a match scheduled for October 30 2026 at 2:15 AM ET [1]. A Pakistan outcome is correct only if Pakistan is "officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match" [1]. The Draw outcome covers all other cases, including where "the toss and match winners differ, or where no match winner is recorded" [1]. The rules also treat a Super Over winner as the match winner and state that a permanently canceled or abandoned match resolves to Draw [1].

The saved snapshot includes two Polymarket contracts: one titled "Pakistan Winner" and one titled "Draw" [1]. Both list an end time of 2026-11-06T07:15:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time, not a result date. The rules also say a postponed match keeps the market open until the fixture is completed [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-30T09:00:06.125Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-30T11:31:29.214Z [1]. These are different moments, and the prices describe the observation, not current conditions when you read this. The Pakistan Winner contract shows Yes at 0.98 and No at 0.02. The Draw contract shows Yes at 0.45 and No at 0.55 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

The two contracts have different wording, so their prices should not be averaged or combined into a single estimate. The sample contains two markets from one event, and the coverage record marks it as complete for this saved event with no partial sample flag [1]. The saved event does not include an India contract, so this snapshot says nothing about the price of an India outcome. The absence does not mean that outcome is priced lower. The evidence also provides no volume figures, and volume would not indicate liquidity or number of traders in any case.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show whether the scheduled match has been played, what the toss result was, or who was officially recorded as the winner. The retrieval time is later than the scheduled start in the contract rules, so the official match record should be checked directly. The evidence also does not explain why the prices are at their current levels. Readers should check each contract's wording separately, since a Pakistan Yes outcome depends on both the toss and the match result.

References

1. Polymarket: Hong Kong Sixes: India vs Pakistan - Toss Match Double. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T09:00:06.125Z.