TX-33 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $11.3K
1
10
TX-33 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $11.3K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 35-40% at 33.7%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 35-40%33.7%
- Democrat 50-55%31%
- Democrat 45-50%23.5%
- Democrat 40-45%11%
- Democrat 30-35%7.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $11.3K
Reported volume · provider units
10
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Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 TX-33 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-33 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks about the margin of victory in the 2026 TX-33 House election. The contract defines the margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each bracket market asks whether the Democratic Party candidate wins by a given range, while a separate market asks whether the Republican Party candidate wins [1]. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1].
The rules include several details that affect how a bracket resolves. A value that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties follow a specific tiebreak using ballot-listed last names, and a tie between two or more unlisted candidates resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution uses the official vote count once it is certified, and a recount initiated before certification keeps the market open [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
The listed end time in the saved data is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not a resolution date, and the rules describe the election as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That expectation is a rule description, not a confirmed event announcement.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-16T00:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-16T00:06:48Z [1]. These prices describe that moment only and are not live quotes or executable prices. They are also not verified probabilities.
Within the saved event, the Yes prices for the Democratic bracket markets are highest for "by 50%-55%" at 0.305, followed by "by 35%-40%" at 0.2465, "by 45%-50%" at 0.235, and "by 40%-45%" at 0.20 [1]. The "by 55%-60%" bracket is 0.0275, and the remaining Democratic brackets are 0.012 or lower [1]. The Republican Party win market has a Yes price of 0.003 [1].
These are different questions. The Republican win market is not a bracket of the Democratic margin, so its price should not be compared as if it were another margin range. Prices across the bracket markets should also be read individually rather than averaged or combined into a single figure.
What remains uncertain
The saved data includes all 10 markets for this single provider event, and the partial sample flag is false [1]. However, the sample warning states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The available evidence does not show how the market reached these prices, how many traders are involved, or how much liquidity exists.
The evidence also does not establish the election result, the certified count, or any later developments. Readers should check the current contract page and the official certification process before relying on this snapshot.
References
- Polymarket: TX-33 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia topic covers a Polymarket event titled "TX-33 House Election Margin of Victory." The contract concerns the 2026 election for the House seat in Texas's 33rd district. According to the contract, the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. A Wikipedia overview of the wider 2026 Texas House races states that the elections will be held on that date to elect one representative from each of the state's thirty-eight congressional districts [2]. The contract does not ask who will win in a simple yes or no form for every outcome. Instead, it measures the "margin of victory," which the contract defines as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates [1]. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The event is split into separate markets. Ten of them ask whether the Democratic Party candidate will win by a given range, such as 0% to 20%, 20% to 30%, and so on up to 60% or more. A separate market asks whether the Republican Party candidate will win the election [1]. Several rules shape how the brackets are read. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1]. If a reported value falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The contract also includes tie-breaking and timing rules. If two listed candidates tie for the most valid votes, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically [1]. If a recount begins before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1]. The primary resolution source is the official certified results published by the state electoral authority, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The listed end time for the event is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That date is a field in the contract rules and is not a report of results. The contract says resolution will follow the official vote count once it is made official [1].
Historical Context
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Why It Matters
The contract measures how far apart the top two candidates finish in valid votes, rather than only which party wins. Because each bracket covers a different range of that gap, the Democratic brackets describe a spread of possible outcomes for one district [1]. The separate Republican market addresses whether that party's candidate wins the seat [1]. Understanding the definition of valid votes, the treatment of independent candidates, and the certification rule is necessary for reading any bracket correctly [1]. The contract also makes clear that the resolution depends on official certified results or credible consensus reporting, not on the event's listed end time [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is margin of victory defined in this contract?
The contract defines margin of victory as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is found by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1].
Do independent candidates count as options in the Democratic or Republican markets?
No. The contract states that independent candidates will not represent options for either party, and that candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options [1].
When is the TX-33 House election expected to be held?
The contract states that the 2026 TX-33 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The Wikipedia overview of the 2026 Texas House elections gives the same date for the statewide set of House races [2].
What happens if the results are not known by June 30, 2027?
Under the contract, if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Does the listed end time mean the market resolves on that date?
No. The contract says the market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official, and a recount initiated before certification keeps the market open until it is completed [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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