BNB Up or Down - October 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract is titled "BNB Up or Down - October 26, 11:15 AM to 11:30 AM ET" [1]. Its rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A contract on a different data source, a spot exchange price, or a different time window would not measure the same thing, even if its title looks similar.
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T15:30:00.000Z [1]. This is the provider's listed close time for the contract. It is not evidence of when resolution has occurred or will occur.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-25T18:00:06Z, and PredictPedia retrieved the source at 2026-10-25T20:46:34Z [1]. Both times are earlier than the listed end time. The figures below describe those saved moments and should not be read as live prices.
The saved quotes are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and the snapshot alone does not show which side a trader would be able to buy or sell at that price. The record also contains no volume or liquidity measure, so it says nothing about how much trading stands behind these prices.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and the record marks it as complete with no partial sample [1]. The provider's sample warning says the saved markets "do not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this is a binary Up or Down pair, no omitted outcome applies here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and this summary does not attempt that. It also does not show how many participants hold either side, or whether any other platform lists a comparable contract. If another platform offers a similarly titled market, its rules, data source, and close time could differ, so its price should not be compared directly with this one.
The outcome depends on the Chainlink TWAP calculation over the window in the title, which the evidence does not show in detail. Anyone using this snapshot should check the current status and final result on the provider before drawing conclusions.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price question about BNB, a crypto asset, for the period from 11:15 AM to 11:30 AM ET on October 26. It is listed on Polymarket and is titled "BNB Up or Down - October 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET" [1]. The contract is structured as a binary outcome with two options, Up and Down [1]. The contract's rules tie the result to a time-weighted average price, or TWAP, of BNB generated by Chainlink over the time range in the title. If that average is greater than or equal to the price at the start of the range, the market resolves to Up. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The comparison is therefore between an average taken across the window and the starting price, rather than a single price printed at the close. The rules name the resolution source as the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and they state that only this Chainlink data stream counts for the asset pair, not other sources or spot markets [1]. A market trader reading the contract should therefore focus on that specific data stream and its definitions rather than on general BNB price reports. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-26T15:30:00Z [1], which corresponds to the 11:30 AM ET close in the title.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BNB/USD time-weighted average price over the 11:15 AM to 11:30 AM ET window is at or above the price at the beginning of that window [1]. Because the rule uses an average over the window rather than a single moment, the result depends on how the price moves throughout the 15 minutes, not only on where it ends. Because the rule names one specific data stream, the contract outcome is defined by that stream's data, not by any other price source [1]. Anyone interpreting a price shown for this contract should keep in mind that a displayed price reflects market activity on the platform and is not a verified probability of the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What happens if the average is below the starting price?
Under the contract rules, the market resolves to Down in that case [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used for this contract [1].
When does the contract's time window end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T15:30:00Z, and the title specifies the window ends at 11:30 AM ET [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.