DFB-Pokal: 2026-27 Champion
PM $9.8K · K 45.1K contracts
2
57
DFB-Pokal: 2026-27 Champion
PM $9.8K · K 45.1K contracts
2
57
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 24, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, Bayern Munich is priced at 40.8% on Polymarket and 49.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern MunichSame question, fine print differs | 40.8% | 49.5% | 8.7 pts |
| DortmundSame question, fine print differs | 14.5% | 10% | 4.5 pts |
| LeverkusenSame question, fine print differs | 5.6% | 6.5% | 0.9 pts |
| LeipzigSame question, fine print differs | 3.5% | 5.5% | 2.1 pts |
| FrankfurtSame question, fine print differs | 2.5% | 3.5% | 1.1 pts |
| StuttgartSame question, fine print differs | 2.9% | 3.5% | 0.6 pts |
| FreiburgSame question, fine print differs | 1.4% | 3.5% | 2.2 pts |
| AugsburgSame question, fine print differs | 0.9% | 3.5% | 2.6 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $9.8K · K 45.1K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
57
Saved contracts
21
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the club that wins the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed club to win the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal per the rules of the competition (e.g., they are eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal is cancelled, postponed after June 12, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the Deutscher Fußball-Bund (DFB); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied source describes a single event, "DFB-Pokal: 2026-27 Champion" on Polymarket. Each listed club has its own binary contract asking whether that club will win the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal. The rules state that the market "will resolve according to the club that wins the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal" [1]. If a listed club becomes unable to win under the competition's rules, for example after elimination, its market resolves to "No" [1]. If the competition is cancelled, or postponed past June 12, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or no winner is declared in that timeframe, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
The primary resolution source is official information from the Deutscher Fußball-Bund, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-05-29T23:59:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time in the contract data, not an announced date for the final.
Reading the snapshot
The prices come from an observation time of 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, which was retrieved at 2026-10-16T04:47:20.897Z [1]. They describe that moment only and are not live quotes or executable prices. For Bayern Munich, the Yes price was 0.4135 and the No price was 0.5865. Borussia Dortmund's Yes price was 0.178, and RB Leipzig's was 0.1025 [1]. Bayer Leverkusen's Yes price was 0.096, and VfB Stuttgart's was 0.0545 [1].
These figures are quoted prices in the saved snapshot. They are not verified probabilities, and the data does not explain why any price is where it is.
The sample is partial. The coverage record lists 36 total markets for this event and 12 included markets [1]. The included markets were selected by descending Yes price, so the 12 shown are the highest-priced contracts in the saved event, not a random or complete set. Clubs outside the sample may have been excluded for that reason. The data does not provide their prices, so no conclusion about their standing should be drawn from their absence.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not include volume data, so it says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders. The "Other" outcome's price is not in the supplied data. Because each club is a separate binary contract, the Yes and No prices for one club should not be compared with another club's contract as an arbitrage opportunity without executable quotes and the full field. The source does not report recent developments in the competition, and this explanation does not supply any.
References
- Polymarket: DFB-Pokal: 2026-27 Champion. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The DFB-Pokal is the German football cup, run by the German Football Association (DFB) [2]. The 2026-27 edition is the 84th season of the competition. It includes 64 teams, among them all clubs from the previous year's Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga [2]. The competition began on 21 August 2026 with the first of six rounds and is scheduled to end with the final on 29 May 2027 at the Olympiastadion in Berlin [2]. The Polymarket event titled "DFB-Pokal: 2026-27 Champion" is a set of contracts about which club wins this edition [1]. Each club has its own market with Yes and No outcomes. The event was observed on 16 October 2026 at 03:00 UTC, and the figures below reflect that snapshot. They are prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the trading volume shown elsewhere does not indicate liquidity or the number of participants. The sample covers 12 of the 36 club markets in the event. The included markets were selected by highest Yes price, so the clubs left out are not implied to have lower prices. At the observation time, Bayern Munich had the highest included Yes price at about 0.41, followed by Borussia Dortmund at about 0.18 and RB Leipzig at about 0.10 [1]. Bayer Leverkusen, VfB Stuttgart, Eintracht Frankfurt, SC Freiburg, Greuther Furth, Union Berlin, FC St. Pauli, TSG Hoffenheim and 1. FC Koeln followed with smaller included prices [1].
Historical Context
The DFB-Pokal is described as the second-most important club title in German football, after the Bundesliga championship [2]. The 2026-27 edition is the 84th season of the annual cup [2]. The previous edition, the 2025-26 DFB-Pokal, was the 83rd season, and its final was played on 23 May 2026 at the Olympiastadion in Berlin [3]. The Olympiastadion has hosted the final since 1985, and the source describes it as a nominally neutral venue [2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures which club wins the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal [1]. Each club's market resolves on that outcome. If a club becomes unable to win under the competition's rules, for example because it is eliminated, its market resolves to No [1]. If the competition is cancelled, postponed after 11:59 PM ET on 12 June 2027, or otherwise has no declared winner within that timeframe, the market resolves to Other [1]. The contract's listed end time is 29 May 2027 at 23:59 UTC [1]. That date is the provider's listed end time, not confirmation of when the final will be played or when the contract will resolve. The primary resolution source is official DFB information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes price represent in this event?
Each market asks whether a specific club will win the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal [1]. A Yes price is a snapshot of the traded price for that outcome at the observation time, not a verified probability or an executable quote [1].
What happens to a club that is eliminated?
If it becomes impossible for a listed club to win the competition under its rules, such as after elimination, that club's market resolves to No [1].
When would a market resolve to Other?
The market resolves to Other if the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal is cancelled, postponed after 11:59 PM ET on 12 June 2027, or otherwise has no winner declared within that timeframe [1].
Who determines the winner for resolution?
The primary resolution source is official information from the DFB, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Does a low price for an unlisted club mean it has no chance?
No. The sample includes only 12 of 36 club markets, selected by highest Yes price, so clubs outside the sample are not shown and should not be assumed to have lower prices [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
8
Same-question pairs
21
Largest saved gap: 8.7 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
