Market snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsFinancials

How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

Reported volume

PM $15.3K · K 16.7K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

Vol

PM $15.3K · K 16.7K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 4.86% at 40.5%, and on Kalshi it is 4.93% or above at 23.5%.

Polymarket

4.86%40.5%
4.89%34.5%
4.92%29.5%
4.95%19%
5.00%13%

Kalshi

4.93% or above23.5%
4.94% or above22.5%
4.95% or above20.5%
4.96% or above20%
4.97% or above18.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

34 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.86% in October?

No data available

Include related or unreviewed contracts

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with usable prices. You can inspect related contracts, but their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(29)

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 5 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $15.3K · K 16.7K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

About This Event

In Oct 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $15.3K · K 16.7K contracts
Coverage: 39 of 39 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T4.92; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 522.63 contracts
Outcome Yes: 23.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 76.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.92% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194856; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-2-year-treasury-yield-hit-4pt92-in-october
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.3K
Outcome Yes: 29.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 70.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.95% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T4.95; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 448 contracts
Outcome Yes: 20.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 80.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194857; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-2-year-treasury-yield-hit-4pt95-in-october
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.6K
Outcome Yes: 19.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 81.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.00% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.00; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 13.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 86.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.00% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194858; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-2-year-treasury-yield-hit-5pt00-in-october
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.9K
Outcome Yes: 13.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 87.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.10; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 200 contracts
Outcome Yes: 8.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.10% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194860; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-2-year-treasury-yield-hit-5pt10-in-october
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $995.48
Outcome Yes: 10.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.15; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 249.99 contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.15% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194861; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-2-year-treasury-yield-hit-5pt15-in-october
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.5K
Outcome Yes: 5.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.21; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 727.22 contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.21% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.20; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.20% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.19; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 331 contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.19% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.18; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 200 contracts
Outcome Yes: 4.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.18% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.17; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 221 contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.17% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.16; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 200 contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.16% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.14; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 6.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.14% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.13; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 8.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.13% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.12; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 8.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.12% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.11; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 200 contracts
Outcome Yes: 7.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.11% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.09; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 200 contracts
Outcome Yes: 8.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.09% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.08; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 200 contracts
Outcome Yes: 9.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.08% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.07; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 620.92 contracts
Outcome Yes: 9.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.07% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.06; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 549.65 contracts
Outcome Yes: 9.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.06% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.05; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 400 contracts
Outcome Yes: 10.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.05% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.04; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 407.41 contracts
Outcome Yes: 11.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 89.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.04% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.03; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 488 contracts
Outcome Yes: 11.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 88.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.03% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.02; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 12.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 87.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.02% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 966 contracts
Outcome Yes: 13.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 86.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.01% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T4.99; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 977.68 contracts
Outcome Yes: 14.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 86.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.99% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.98% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T4.98; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 446 contracts
Outcome Yes: 16.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 83.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.98% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.97% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T4.97; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 435 contracts
Outcome Yes: 17.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 82.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.97% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.96% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T4.96; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 400 contracts
Outcome Yes: 18.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 81.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.96% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T4.94; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 20.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 79.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.94% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.93% in Oct 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T4.93; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirhm-26oct30h
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 777.52 contracts
Outcome Yes: 22.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 77.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.93% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.86% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194854; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-2-year-treasury-yield-hit-4pt86-in-october
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.5K
Outcome Yes: 40.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 59.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Contract: Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.89% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194855; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-2-year-treasury-yield-hit-4pt89-in-october
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.5K
Outcome Yes: 34.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 65.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Contract: Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194859; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-2-year-treasury-yield-hit-5pt05-in-october
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.4K
Outcome Yes: 12.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 87.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Contract: Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% in October?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5194862; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-2-year-treasury-yield-hit-5pt25-in-october
Observed: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.6K
Outcome Yes: 0.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.1%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-5194856 / kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T4.92: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% in Oct 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% in October?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 21, 2026, 2:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5194860 / kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.10: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% in Oct 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in October?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 21, 2026, 2:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5194857 / kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T4.95: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.95% in Oct 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 21, 2026, 2:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5194858 / kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.00: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.00% in Oct 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 21, 2026, 2:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5194861 / kalshi-KX2YRDIRHM-26OCT30H-T5.15: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% in Oct 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% in October?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 21, 2026, 2:05 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

Volume$16.69K

Markets30

POLYMARKETEconomy

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Volume$15.30K

Markets9

34 of 34

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Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.86% in October?

polymarket

Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.86% in October?

Yes: 40.5¢
No: 59.5¢

Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.89% in October?

polymarket

Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.89% in October?

Yes: 34.5¢
No: 65.5¢

Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% in Oct 2026?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% in Oct 2026?"; listed deadline 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% in October?"; listed deadline 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Wed, 21 Oct 2026 02:05:13 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% in Oct 2026?

Yes: 23.5¢
No: 76.5¢

polymarket

Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% in October?

Yes: 29.5¢
No: 70.5¢

Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.93% in Oct 2026?

kalshi

Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.93% in Oct 2026?

Yes: 22.5¢
No: 77.5¢

Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% in Oct 2026?

kalshi

Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% in Oct 2026?

Yes: 20.5¢
No: 79.5¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

PM $12.5K · K 13.8K contracts

Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.73% in Oct 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 65.5%Rules differK Yes 33%

Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.70% in Oct 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 53%Rules differK Yes 29%

Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.67% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.67% in Oct 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 40.5%Rules differK Yes 25.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

4 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

PM $18.8K · K 29.6K contracts

Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.08% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% in Oct 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 32.5%Rules differK Yes 24.5%

Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.11% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% in Oct 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 27%Rules differK Yes 20.5%

Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.14% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% in Oct 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 26%Rules differK Yes 15.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

8 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

PM $32.9K · K 36.3K contracts

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.35% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 14%Rules differK Yes 10.5%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.31% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 10.2%Rules differK Yes 13%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.37% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 10.5%Rules differK Yes 8.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

7 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

How high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

PM $21.3K · K 43.0K contracts

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 10.5%Rules differK Yes 7.5%

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.72% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 7%Rules differK Yes 3.5%

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.76% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.75% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 6.5%Rules differK Yes 2.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

6 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

KalshiEconomics

How high will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

K 13.6K contracts

Will the 7-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% in Oct 2026?Yes 19.5%

Will the 7-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% in Oct 2026?Yes 19%

Will the 7-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% in Oct 2026?Yes 17.5%

+23 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

PM $15.2K · K 6.8K contracts

Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.89% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.89% in Oct 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 60.5%Rules differK Yes 42%

Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.86% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.86% in Oct 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 53.5%Rules differK Yes 31.5%

Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.83% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.83% in Oct 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 41%Rules differK Yes 26%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

4 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC

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Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC

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Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

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Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.86% in October?

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How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

Markets (5)

Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.86% in October?

Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.89% in October?

Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% in Oct 2026?

Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.93% in Oct 2026?

Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% in Oct 2026?

Related prediction markets

How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

How high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

How high will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

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Price ChartContract price history

Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.86% in October?

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Saved matching review

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.86% in October?

Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.89% in October?

Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% in Oct 2026?

Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.93% in Oct 2026?

Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% in Oct 2026?

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