Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The source is a Kalshi event titled "Golden State vs Denver: 3rd Quarter Spread," covering a game "originally scheduled for Oct 26, 2026" [1]. The quoted rule reads: "If Golden State wins by more than X points in the 3rd quarter of the Golden State vs Denver Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The individual market titles, such as "Denver wins 3Q by over 1.5 points," name a side and a threshold, so each market is a separate question [1]. The rules also state that the market "will close and expire after a winner is declared" [1].

The excerpt says the listed end time was "not supplied," but the saved market records carry an end date of 2026-10-29T02:00:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time in the saved data. It is not an announced event date, and it does not confirm when the game or resolution will occur.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-26T09:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 10:14:35Z on the same day [1]. These figures are a record of that observation, not live quotes or verified probabilities.

The sample includes 12 of 13 saved markets for this event, so it is a partial sample [1]. Among the included markets, "Denver wins 3Q by over 1.5 points" shows Yes at 0.495 and No at 0.505, and "Golden State wins 3Q by over 1.5 points" shows Yes at 0.355 and No at 0.645 [1]. Each listed Yes and No pair sums to 1.00. The included markets are the sample's selected set, so one market is not shown here, and its price cannot be inferred from this record.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price sits at its level, and it does not show how many traders hold these views or how much could be traded at these prices. Volume is not liquidity, and none of these prices is an executable quote. The sample covers one Kalshi event, so no rankings should be drawn across events or providers. Contracts with different thresholds or sides are different questions, and differences between their prices do not indicate an arbitrage opportunity. The final outcome and resolution depend on the game result and the full contract rules, neither of which is in this record.

References

1. Kalshi: Golden State vs Denver: 3rd Quarter Spread. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z.