UFC: Who Will Manel Kape Fight Next?
PM $14.5K
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UFC: Who Will Manel Kape Fight Next?
PM $14.5K
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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Joshua Van at 81.5%.
Polymarket
- Joshua Van81.5%
- Alexandre Pantoja6.5%
- Tatsuro Taira4.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $14.5K
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Manel Kape is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Manel Kape is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Manel Kape is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by June 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event asks who Manel Kape will fight next. Its rules state that it "will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Manel Kape is officially announced to face in a UFC bout" [1]. Only official UFC announcements that include a scheduled date count. Announcements without a date, unconfirmed reports, and speculation do not [1]. Resolution applies "regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place" [1].
If Kape is officially announced against a fighter not on the list, or no qualifying announcement is made by June 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That deadline is a term in the contract rules, not an announced event date. The listed end time is 2027-06-21T03:59:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved markets were observed at 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T03:36:23.698Z [1]. These figures describe that saved moment only. They are not live quotes or executable prices, and they are not verified probabilities.
Three Yes contracts appear in the sample: Joshua Van at 0.935, Alexandre Pantoja at 0.055, and Tatsuro Taira at 0.0115 [1]. Each is a separate binary contract, so each price should be read on its own terms. Van has the highest saved Yes price, but that reflects only this snapshot. The "Other" outcome is not among the supplied markets, so no price is available for it, and no price should be inferred for it from the others.
The evidence includes no volume figures for this comparison and does not indicate how many traders hold any position.
What remains uncertain
All three saved markets were included, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. The sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The supplied evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, does not report recent news, and does not show whether any qualifying announcement has been made.
Only one platform is supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Contract rules and quoted prices may change after the snapshot time.
References
- Polymarket: UFC: Who Will Manel Kape Fight Next?. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks who Manel Kape will next be officially announced to face in a UFC bout. The rules state that resolution follows the next UFC fighter Kape is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether that fight ends up taking place [1]. Only official announcements from the UFC that include a scheduled date for the bout count. Announcements without a date, speculation, and other unofficial reports do not count [1]. The provider lists three named outcomes in the saved sample: Joshua Van, Alexandre Pantoja, and Tatsuro Taira [1]. If Kape is officially announced to face a fighter who is not one of the listed names, or if no qualifying announcement is made by June 20, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time in the provider data is June 21, 2027 at 03:59 UTC [1]. That end time is a contract closing time, not an announced event date. The primary resolution source is official information from the UFC [1]. The saved event contains all of its markets, but the provider does not establish that these three names cover every possible opponent, which is why the rules include the "Other" outcome [1].
Historical Context
Wikipedia states that Kape has been a professional since 2012 and has formerly competed for Cage Fighters, Knock Out Championship, and Rizin Fighting Federation. It describes him as the former Rizin Bantamweight Champion and the former Knock Out Championship Bantamweight champion [2]. The same page says that, as of September 19, 2026, he was ranked #1 in the Meta UFC flyweight rankings [2]. That is a dated statement from the page, not a confirmed present-day ranking.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the UFC officially announces a next bout for Kape with a scheduled date, and if so, against which fighter. Because the rules require an official UFC announcement with a date, a reported matchup that lacks those elements would not settle the market [1]. Traders and readers should note that the displayed prices are snapshots and not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the contract resolve if the announced fight does not take place?
Resolution is based on the next fighter Kape is officially announced to face, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place [1].
What kind of announcement counts?
Only official announcements from the UFC that include a scheduled date for the bout count. Announcements with no date, speculation, or other unofficial announcements do not count [1].
What happens if no qualifying announcement is made in time?
If no qualifying announcement is made by June 20, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or if Kape is announced against a non-listed fighter, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Who is the primary resolution source?
The primary resolution source is official information from the UFC [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
