Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 3AM ET
PM $0
1
1
Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 3AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Polymarket contract, "Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 3AM ET," in the Crypto category [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is Binance's ETH/USDT pair, and the rules add that the market is "about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs" [1].
The provider lists an end time of 2026-10-16T08:00:00.000Z and a status of active [1]. The end time is the listed close, not a confirmed resolution. The evidence does not show a resolved outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:32:21.375Z [1]. Those are two different times, and the observation is the older one. The prices below reflect the observation time, not the retrieval time, and the evidence contains no later price.
The saved market shows "Up" at 0.5 and "Down" at 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot prices. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The record contains no order book depth, so it says nothing about whether either side could be traded at these levels.
The sample is complete for this event. Coverage lists one total market and one included market, with partialSample set to false [1]. Because only one contract is in the record, there is no comparison with other platforms or other events in this snapshot.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are at 0.5 or whether they have changed since observation. It also does not include trader counts, trading volume beyond what the record contains, or any news about Ethereum.
The rules depend on a specific Binance candle, so a reader should check the rules text and the Binance candle directly rather than relying on this summary. The record also says that the provider list "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. For this binary contract, that caveat matters less than the timing and source rules, but the snapshot should not be read as a live price.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 3AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-term price market on Ethereum, titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 3AM ET." Its outcomes are "Up" and "Down." According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price of the ETH/USDT one-hour candle that begins at the time and date in the title. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT trading pair. The rules state that the open and close shown at the top of the relevant "1H" candle on that chart will be used once the data for that candle is finalized [1]. The rules also specify that the market concerns the price on Binance ETH/USDT only, not prices on other exchanges or trading pairs [1]. The provider lists the event end time as 2026-10-16T08:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed end time in the contract data, not a separate announced event. The contract is a single market in the saved sample, and the provider reported it as active when the record was retrieved [1]. Any price shown for it reflects the provider's snapshot at that time, not a live or executable quote.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single directional question: whether the Binance ETH/USDT one-hour candle beginning at the stated time closes at or above its opening price [1]. Because the rule compares only the open and close of that one candle, the outcome depends on the price path that candle produces on that specific venue, and not on the broader trend of ether or on other exchanges [1]. Readers should keep the resolution time, the candle definition, and the named source in view when reading the contract, since those define what the outcome will be.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the close price of the ETH/USDT one-hour candle is greater than or equal to its open price, and Down otherwise. The candle is the one beginning at the time and date in the market title [1].
Which exchange's prices are used?
The resolution source is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair. The rules state that prices on other exchanges or trading pairs do not determine the outcome [1].
When are the open and close values taken?
The rules say the open and close displayed for the relevant one-hour candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized [1].
Does a listed price show the likelihood of an outcome?
The price shown is a snapshot taken from the provider's record at a specific time. It is not an executable quote and should not be read as a verified probability [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
