Silver Up or Down - October 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
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Silver Up or Down - October 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Silver price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XAG/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xag-usd-forexprice-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XAG/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract on whether silver rises or falls over a 15-minute window in the evening of October 28, 2026 (Eastern Time). The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the Silver price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. A tie at the start and end therefore resolves to Up, not Down.
The resolution source is Chainlink's XAG/USD data stream, and the rules say the market "is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XAG/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with silver prices on other platforms or in spot markets should not assume those prices will settle it.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-28T06:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-28T06:17:39Z [1]. The saved status was active, and the listed end time is 2026-10-29T01:15:00Z [1]. These times describe when the data was captured, not the present state of the market. Because the listed end time is after the retrieval time, the snapshot does not show whether the contract has closed or resolved.
At the observation, the saved prices were 0.5 for Up and 0.5 for Down [1]. These are equal prices for the two outcomes in a single snapshot. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved volume and any order book depth are not part of this evidence, so they cannot be used to judge liquidity.
The coverage record lists one market for this event, with all saved markets included and no partial sample [1]. This means the saved event contains only this binary contract. The provider notes that the sample does not establish that every possible outcome is listed, but for this contract the two outcomes are the complete saved pair.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the silver price at the start or end of the window, the final resolution, or any reason the prices sit at 0.5. It also does not show how many traders are involved or how the price has changed since the observation. Any comparison with a similarly named market on a different platform, or with a different time window, should first check the resolution source, the window, and the listed close time, since these determine what each contract measures.
References
- Polymarket: Silver Up or Down - October 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Polymarket contract titled "Silver Up or Down - October 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET" in the Finance category [1]. The contract asks whether the price of silver will be higher or lower at the end of a 15-minute window than at the start. According to the contract rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the silver price at the end of the time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and otherwise resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the comparison uses a start and an end price, a result of exactly equal prices counts as "Up" under these rules. The resolution source is Chainlink. The rules specify the XAG/USD data stream as the reference, and state that the market concerns the price reported by that Chainlink data stream rather than other sources or spot markets [1]. Traders therefore need to understand that a silver price on a different exchange or a different data feed does not decide this contract. The title gives the window in Eastern Time, while the listed end time in the provider record is 2026-10-29T01:15:00.000Z [1]. That end time corresponds to the close of the 9:00PM to 9:15PM ET window. The saved record shows the contract as active, with an "Up" price of 0.5 and a "Down" price of 0.5 at the time of the observation [1]. These figures are snapshots of the listed prices at one moment. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of how silver will move.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of the Chainlink XAG/USD price over one 15-minute window, as defined in the provider rules [1]. It is a binary question with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down", and the outcome is determined only by comparing the start and end of that window [1]. The rules are explicit that the contract is about the Chainlink data stream and not about other sources or spot markets, so the resolution depends on that feed alone [1]. Understanding the exact resolution source and time window is therefore the central requirement for reading this contract correctly.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this silver market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves to "Up" if the silver price at the end of the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source is used to resolve the contract?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the XAG/USD data stream. The rules state that the market is about the price in that Chainlink data stream, not about other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract's window end?
The title gives the window as 9:00PM to 9:15PM ET on October 28. The provider record lists the end time as 2026-10-29T01:15:00.000Z [1].
Does the 0.5 price for each outcome mean the market has a verified probability?
No. The recorded prices are snapshots of the listed outcome prices at the time of observation [1]. They are not executable quotes and should not be treated as verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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