Snapshot observed 2026-11-09T09:00:06.079Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Polymarket event asks which company will be the third-largest in the world by market cap. Its rules state that the market "will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026, as of market close" [1]. Each company has its own binary contract, asking whether that named company will hold the position. The rules name a "consensus of credible reporting" as the resolution source [1], which does not specify a single data provider, so readers should check how that consensus would be determined.

The listed end time is 2026-12-01T04:59:00Z [1]. This is a contract closing time and is not the same as the November 30 date in the rule text. The rule text sets the measurement date, while the listed end time is when the provider lists the market as closing. The source does not explain the difference, so readers should not treat the two dates as interchangeable.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-09T09:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-11-09T10:03:41Z [1]. These are snapshots at that time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The event is listed as active in the saved record.

All 11 saved markets for this event are included, and the coverage record marks the sample as not partial [1]. Yes prices in the snapshot are: Microsoft 0.73, NVIDIA 0.164, Alphabet 0.0725, Apple 0.005, and seven companies (Amazon, SpaceX, Saudi Aramco, Broadcom, Meta, TSMC, and Tesla) at 0.0005 each [1]. The highest Yes price is Microsoft's, and the lowest are the companies at 0.0005.

Each contract is separate, so the Yes prices should not be averaged or combined into a single estimate. The Yes prices across the 11 contracts sum to about 0.98, but that total does not establish a probability distribution. Volume data is not included in this snapshot for interpretation, and prices do not indicate how many traders hold a position.

What remains uncertain

The saved record covers only one provider event, and the source states that the listed markets do not establish that the provider covers every possible real-world outcome [1]. This snapshot does not show why prices are at their current levels, and it contains no recent news or information about the companies' market caps. Because the resolution source is a general consensus of reporting, the outcome could depend on how that consensus is interpreted at close. Readers should check the current contract page before relying on any price, since this record reflects only the November 9, 2026 snapshot.

References

1. Polymarket: 3rd Largest Company end of November 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-11-09T09:00:06.079Z.