This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

Name: Which company has the third best AI model end of June?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.59K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

Vol

$3.59K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.59K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.59K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	63%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	19%
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	15%
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	6%
Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	6%
Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	5%
Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	4%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

63%

Top Probability

$3.59K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which company has the third best AI model end of June?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $277
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $169
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $324
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $402
  DATA: [Yes: 63.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $380
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $316
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $134
  DATA: [Yes: 5.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.4% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $208
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $184
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $134
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $150
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $294
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $176
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $180
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $265
  DATA: [Yes: 6.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech