Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by ___?
PM $67.4K
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Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by ___?
PM $67.4K
1
3
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31, 2026 at 6.5%.
Polymarket
- December 31, 20266.5%
- November 30, 20264.5%
- October 31, 20261.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $67.4K
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if https://x.com/elonmusk posts the listed term by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in main feed posts, quote posts, and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of the listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: H@perl1quid, for "Hyperliquid") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: Hyperliquidd or Hyperliqid, for "Hyperliquid"), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the listed term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). Posts published from https://x.com/elonmusk during a period in which the account is verifiably compromised or hacked, as confirmed by Elon Musk or X, do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: https://x.com/elonmusk Please note, only the https://x.com/elonmusk verified X account counts for this market. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied markets ask whether Elon Musk will post the word "Hyperliquid" by a deadline set in each market title. Under the rules, a Yes resolution depends on posts from "Elon Musk's verified X account" [1]. Main feed posts, quote posts, and reply posts count, but "quoted posts and reposts will not count" [1]. Plural, possessive, and capitalization variants count, while misspellings and other forms do not [1]. Posts made "during a period in which the account is verifiably compromised or hacked" do not qualify [1].
The rules set resolution at "11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title" [1]. The provider lists end times in UTC: 2026-11-01T04:00:00.000Z for the October 31 market, 2026-12-01T05:00:00.000Z for the November 30 market, and 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z for the December 31 market [1]. Readers should check the listed end time against the title date, since the two are expressed in different time zones.
Reading the snapshot
The market prices were observed at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T02:59:01.778Z. These are past snapshots and do not show current prices.
In the snapshot, the October 31 market showed Yes at 0.0305 and No at 0.9695. The November 30 market showed Yes at 0.085 and No at 0.915. The December 31 market showed Yes at 0.115 and No at 0.885 [1]. Within each market, the Yes and No prices sum to 1. The Yes price is higher for later deadlines, which is consistent with a longer window, but the evidence does not explain why prices moved or whether they moved at all.
All three markets come from one Polymarket event, so the comparison stays within a single provider. The sample includes all three saved markets, and the provider's warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Prices here are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, or the number of traders, so these prices cannot be read as measures of market depth or agreement. It also does not include news about Elon Musk, X, or the term, and it does not say whether the account has been compromised at any time. The markets were listed as active at observation, but no resolution outcome appears in the evidence.
References
- Polymarket: Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by ___?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event asking whether Elon Musk will post the word "Hyperliquid" on his X account by a set deadline. The event is one of several Polymarket contracts that use the same rules and differ only in their deadline. The resolution rules are the core of the contract, so they matter as much as the prices [1]. Under the rules, a market resolves "Yes" if the listed account posts the term by 11:59 PM ET on the date given in the market title. Otherwise it resolves "No" [1]. The rules count text in main feed posts, quote posts, and replies. Quoted posts and reposts do not count [1]. Text inside images, memes, or other media that is not strictly text counts only if the term is spelled out clearly and in full. A word inside an animated GIF does not count [1]. The rules also set limits on wording. Plural or possessive forms and changes in capitalization count, but other grammatical or slang forms do not [1]. Misspellings do not count, even when the intent is clear [1]. Extra symbols inserted into the word disqualify it, while sigils such as hashtags, @ symbols, or currency signs do not [1]. A term used inside a compound word counts [1]. Posts made while the account is verifiably compromised or hacked, as confirmed by Elon Musk or X, do not qualify [1]. Only the verified account at x.com/elonmusk counts, and posts from any other account have no bearing on resolution [1]. The saved event includes three markets, each asking about a different deadline: October 31, 2026, November 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026 [1]. The listed price snapshots for "Yes" are 0.0305 for the October deadline, 0.085 for the November deadline, and 0.115 for the December deadline [1]. The matching "No" prices are 0.9695, 0.915, and 0.885 [1]. These are snapshots of listed prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The source does not explain why the prices differ across deadlines, so this entry does not offer a reason. The listed end times differ from the titles in format. For example, the December market lists an end time of 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z, while its title refers to December 31, 2026 [1]. Under the rules, the deadline is 11:59 PM ET on the date in the title, so the listed timestamp should be read as the contract's recorded end time rather than a separate event [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific word appears in posts from one named X account before a deadline. Because the rules count main feed posts and replies but exclude reposts and quoted posts, the outcome depends on how each post is categorized under the rules [1]. The strict spelling and symbol rules also mean that a post with a misspelling or an extra character may not count, even when the meaning is clear [1]. The price snapshots show how the listed market priced the "Yes" outcome at the time of observation for each deadline, but they are not a forecast or a measure of the likelihood of posting [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for the market to resolve Yes?
The listed account must post the listed term by 11:59 PM ET on the date in the market title [1].
Do reposts or quoted posts count?
No. The rules state that quoted posts and reposts will not count toward a Yes resolution [1].
Does the term count if it appears in an image or GIF?
It counts in images only if the term is spelled out clearly and in full. Text inside an animated GIF does not qualify [1].
Do hashtags or @ symbols affect the outcome?
No. Sigils such as hashtags, @ symbols, or currency signs do not disqualify a term, but extraneous symbols inserted into the word do [1].
What happens if the account is hacked?
Posts published while the account is verifiably compromised or hacked, as confirmed by Elon Musk or X, do not qualify [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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