BNB Up or Down - November 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - November 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the BNB price over a five-minute window, titled "BNB Up or Down - November 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET." The rules say it "will resolve to 'Up' if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a BNB price on an exchange or another data feed should expect possible differences, because those figures are not the resolution basis.
The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-01T15:40:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time for the contract. It is not a record of when the market resolved, and the supplied evidence does not include a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved quote has two outcomes. "Up" is priced at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.
The prices were observed at 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z. The source was retrieved at 2026-11-01T10:33:03.519Z [1]. The price is therefore about ninety minutes older than the retrieval time, and it should not be described as the current price. The evidence also does not include volume or order book depth, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders are involved.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because the sample contains only the two outcomes of this contract, there is no omitted outcome to compare against and no cross-platform ranking to draw from.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the quoted prices are close to even, and it does not show any movement over time. It also does not include any other BNB contract, any other platform's quote for the same window, or any news about BNB.
Any comparison with a different contract, such as one with a different window or wording, would need its own rules and time stamps. A price difference between two contracts is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity, since their resolution rules and close times may differ.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - November 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term price contract on BNB, listed on Polymarket under the title "BNB Up or Down - November 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET." It asks whether the BNB price over the stated window will finish at or above its level at the start of that window. The source describes the outcome as "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window, and "Down" otherwise [1]. The contract is tied to one specific data feed. The rules say the TWAP is generated by Chainlink and that the resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules also state that the contract concerns the price in that Chainlink stream and not any other sources or spot markets [1]. Under these rules, a price move on an exchange that is not reflected in this feed does not determine the outcome. The record includes several timestamps that should be read separately. The saved snapshot was observed at 09:00:05 UTC on November 1, 2026, and retrieved at 10:33:43 UTC the same day [1]. The listed end time in the contract is 15:40 UTC on November 1, 2026 [1]. That end time is a field in the contract rules. It is not a separate announcement, and the record does not show when the market will settle in practice. The prices in the saved record reflect that observation time. They are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be read as the current state of the market.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether BNB's price, as represented by the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, finishes the stated five-minute window at or above its starting level [1]. Because the outcome is set by a single named data feed rather than by any exchange or general market price, the rules define exactly which number decides the result [1]. Anyone reading the contract should check the window in the title and the listed end time, since both define the period the TWAP covers [1]. The prices shown on the market reflect a single observation and do not show how much trading activity or liquidity sits behind them.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this contract decide whether it resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price data does the contract use?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The TWAP is generated by Chainlink [1].
Does the contract follow prices on exchanges or spot markets?
No. The rules state that the market concerns the price in the Chainlink TWAP data stream for the BNB/USD pair, not any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract's window end?
The title gives the window as 10:35AM to 10:40AM ET. The listed end time in the contract is 15:40 UTC on November 1, 2026 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.