Market snapshot: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Reported volume

PM $18.6K

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Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Vol

PM $18.6K

Events

Markets

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Current odds

Snapshot from Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

As of Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Completed Match at 52%.

Polymarket

Completed Match52%

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Price ChartContract price history

16 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Rolex Paris Masters: Completed Match: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Rolex Paris Masters: Completed Match: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar	Poly	52.0%
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar	Kalshi	Unavailable
Set 1 Winner: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar	Kalshi	Unavailable
Set 2 Winner: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar	Kalshi	Unavailable
Tommy Paul vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar: Total Sets Over/Under 2.5	Kalshi	Unavailable
Paul vs. Aguilar: Set 1 Games Over/Under 8.5	Kalshi	Unavailable
Paul vs. Aguilar: Set 1 Games Over/Under 9.5	Kalshi	Unavailable
Paul vs. Aguilar: Set 1 Games Over/Under 10.5	Kalshi	Unavailable
Paul vs. Aguilar: Set 2 Games Over/Under 8.5	Kalshi	Unavailable
Paul vs. Aguilar: Set 2 Games Over/Under 9.5	Kalshi	Unavailable
Paul vs. Aguilar: Set 2 Games Over/Under 10.5	Kalshi	Unavailable
Paul vs. Aguilar: Match Over/Under 21.5	Kalshi	Unavailable
Paul vs. Aguilar: Match Over/Under 22.5	Kalshi	Unavailable
Paul vs. Aguilar: Match Over/Under 23.5	Kalshi	Unavailable
Set Handicap: Tommy Paul (-1.5) vs Daniel Merida Aguilar (+1.5)	Kalshi	Unavailable
Game Spread: Tommy Paul (-3.5) vs Daniel Merida Aguilar (+3.5)	Kalshi	Unavailable

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Needs review: no direct pair assessment is available.

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $18.6K

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Source snapshot: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $18.6K
Coverage: 16 of 16 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6645964; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $8.2K
Outcome Tommy Paul: 80.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Daniel Merida Aguilar: 19.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar.

This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Tommy Paul.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Rolex Paris Masters: Completed Match: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6645965; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-completed-match
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $18
Outcome Yes: 52.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 48.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if all games and sets required to determine a match winner under governing body or event organizer rules are played to completion through normal play. Otherwise, if the match is not completed for any reason, it will resolve to "No." If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve "No." If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Contract: Set 1 Winner: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647870; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-first-set-winner-Paul-vs-Aguilar
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Tommy Paul: 72.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Daniel Merida Aguilar: 27.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Tommy Paul” if Tommy Paul wins the first set. It will resolve to “Daniel Merida Aguilar” if Daniel Merida Aguilar wins the first set.
If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Set 2 Winner: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647878; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-set-2-winner-Paul-vs-Aguilar
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Tommy Paul: 72.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Daniel Merida Aguilar: 27.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Tommy Paul” if Tommy Paul wins set 2. It will resolve to “Daniel Merida Aguilar” if Daniel Merida Aguilar wins set 2.
If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Tommy Paul vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar: Total Sets Over/Under 2.5
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647885; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-set-totals-2pt5
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over 2.5: 33.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under 2.5: 66.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
If the match is played to completion, this market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets played equals or exceeds 3, and to "Under" otherwise. A set counts as played once it has begun, even if it is not played to completion. A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If a player retires, withdraws, is defaulted, or is disqualified, or the match otherwise begins but is not completed, this market will resolve based on any outcome that was already unequivocally determined at the time play stopped. An outcome is considered unequivocally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, for a line of 2.5, if play stops with the players at one set each, completing the match would have required at least o

Contract: Paul vs. Aguilar: Set 1 Games Over/Under 8.5
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647891; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-first-set-total-8pt5
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 ad

Contract: Paul vs. Aguilar: Set 1 Games Over/Under 9.5
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647897; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-first-set-total-9pt5
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 a

Contract: Paul vs. Aguilar: Set 1 Games Over/Under 10.5
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647904; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-first-set-total-10pt5
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 a

Contract: Paul vs. Aguilar: Set 2 Games Over/Under 8.5
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647910; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-set-2-total-8pt5
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak or played as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by Nov

Contract: Paul vs. Aguilar: Set 2 Games Over/Under 9.5
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647916; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-set-2-total-9pt5
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak or played as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by No

Contract: Paul vs. Aguilar: Set 2 Games Over/Under 10.5
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647921; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-set-2-total-10pt5
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak or played as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by No

Contract: Paul vs. Aguilar: Match Over/Under 21.5
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647928; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-match-total-21pt5
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $4.9
Outcome Over: 51.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 49.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 22. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether a final set is played as a full set or as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at le

Contract: Paul vs. Aguilar: Match Over/Under 22.5
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647932; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-match-total-22pt5
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $5.11
Outcome Over: 44.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 56.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 23. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether a final set is played as a full set or as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at le

Contract: Paul vs. Aguilar: Match Over/Under 23.5
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647936; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-match-total-23pt5
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over: 37.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 63.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the match played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether a final set is played as a full set or as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at le

Contract: Set Handicap: Tommy Paul (-1.5) vs Daniel Merida Aguilar (+1.5)
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647939; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-set-handicap-home-1pt5
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.4K
Outcome Tommy Paul: 55.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Daniel Merida Aguilar: 45.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Tommy Paul" if Tommy Paul wins by 2 or more sets than Daniel Merida Aguilar, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Daniel Merida Aguilar."
If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Tommy Paul can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Daniel Merida Aguilar."
If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Contract: Game Spread: Tommy Paul (-3.5) vs Daniel Merida Aguilar (+3.5)
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6647942; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-paul-aguilar-2026-11-04-game-handicap-home-3pt5
Observed: Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $8.9K
Outcome Tommy Paul: 62.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Daniel Merida Aguilar: 38.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve to "Tommy Paul" if Tommy Paul wins 3.5 or more total games than Daniel Merida Aguilar in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Daniel Merida Aguilar".
Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Tommy Paul could no longer have finished 3.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Daniel Merida Aguilar".
If the match ends in a walk

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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