
Grammy nominees: Song of the Year
PM $34.6K · K 78.8K contracts
3
52
Grammy nominees: Song of the Year

PM $34.6K · K 78.8K contracts
3
52
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 5, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is the cure - Olivia Rodrigo at 64.1%, and on Kalshi it is Man I Need at 90.5%.
Polymarket
- the cure - Olivia Rodrigo64.1%
- Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley30.5%
- WHERE IS MY HUSBAND! - RAYE11%
- I Just Might - Bruno Mars5.3%
- The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift5%
Kalshi
- Man I Need90.5%
- the cure87%
- Choosin' Texas86.5%
- I Knew It, I Knew You84.5%
- WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!78.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $34.6K · K 78.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
52
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 5, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
2027 If X has been nominated for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Grammys. Any references to the Grammys, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Grammys and Kalshi. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T06:00:05.830Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
Each contract asks whether one named song or single wins a specific award. The Kalshi CMA Song of the Year excerpt says that if X wins, "the market resolves to Yes," and it includes an early close if the event occurs [1]. The Polymarket CMA Song of the Year rules are more detailed. They resolve according to the listed song that wins the 60th Annual Country Music Association Award, resolve "No" if a listed song is not officially nominated when nominees are announced, and resolve "Other" if no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Ties go to the tied title that comes first alphabetically [2]. The Polymarket Single of the Year rules follow the same structure [4]. The Kalshi excerpts supplied do not include the nomination, tie, or no-winner provisions, so those rules should not be assumed for Kalshi.
Listed close times also differ. Polymarket shows an end time of 2026-11-19T04:59:00.000Z [2][4]. The Kalshi market records show 2027-11-18T15:00:00.000Z [1][3], while the Kalshi excerpts list no end time. The Polymarket source says the awards "are currently scheduled for November 18, 2026" [2][4]. Readers should compare the wording and close times before comparing prices.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-11-01T06:00:05.830Z. The sources were retrieved later that day, so these figures describe that snapshot and are not live quotes or executable prices.
For CMA Song of the Year, "Choosin' Texas" is priced at 0.885 Yes on Kalshi [1] and 0.88 Yes on Polymarket [2]. For CMA Single of the Year, the same song is 0.83 Yes on Kalshi [3] and 0.81 Yes on Polymarket [4]. These are separate listings on separate platforms with different close times, so they should not be averaged or treated as one consensus.
Polymarket's Grammys 2027 Song of the Year event includes all 10 of its markets, and "Choosin' Texas" is priced at 0.305 Yes there. Kalshi's Best Country Song event includes all 11 markets, with most at 0.495 Yes. Those events are separate and no source excerpts for them were supplied, so their rules and ranking cannot be interpreted against the CMA events.
What remains uncertain
Kalshi's "Grammy nominees: Song of the Year" event is a partial sample. Only 12 of 31 markets are included, so the omitted outcomes are unknown. They should not be assumed to have lower prices.
The supplied evidence includes no volume, liquidity, or trader counts, so it cannot show how much trading supports these prices. It also does not explain why prices are where they are. Price differences between contracts do not establish an arbitrage opportunity, because the wording, close times, and resolution sources differ. None of these outcomes has resolved in the supplied evidence.
References
- Kalshi: CMA Awards: Song of the Year. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T06:00:05.830Z.
- Polymarket: CMA Song of the Year 2026. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T06:00:05.830Z.
- Kalshi: CMA Awards: Single of the Year. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T06:00:05.830Z.
- Polymarket: CMA Single of the Year 2026. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T06:00:05.830Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract concerns the Grammy Awards' Song of the Year category and asks, in its title, whether a listed song will be a 2026 Grammy nominee for Song of the Year. The supplied material for this specific contract includes market listings but no rules excerpt, so the exact resolution terms, closing conditions and resolution source for the nominee question cannot be confirmed from the evidence. The clearest documented rules come from two country music contracts on the same subject area, which are separate events. The Country Music Association Awards Song of the Year contract resolves to Yes if the named song wins Song of the Year at the 60th Country Music Association Awards [1]. The Polymarket version states that a listed song that is not officially nominated for the Country Music Association Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees are announced resolves to No [2]. It also states that a tie resolves in favor of the tied song whose title comes first alphabetically, and that the market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [2]. The Country Music Association's annual awards are described as presented to honor outstanding achievement in country music, with the 60th ceremony listed as scheduled for November 18, 2026 [2]. These CMA rules should not be applied to the Grammy nominee contract, since the two events have different organizers and rules.
Historical Context
The Grammy Awards were established in 1958 and were originally called the Gramophone Awards [5]. According to the background entry, the Song of the Year award is one of the four most prestigious categories at the awards and has been presented annually since the 1st Grammy Awards in 1959 [5]. The award is described as honoring artistic achievement, technical proficiency and overall excellence in the recording industry, without regard to album sales or chart position [5]. A parallel general field category, Album of the Year, is described as the most prestigious Grammy category and has also been presented since the 1st Annual Grammy Awards in 1959 [6]. These entries are encyclopedia background and do not establish current nominees, ceremony dates or the status of any 2026 award.
Why It Matters
The Grammy nominee contract tracks whether a specific song receives a nomination in the Song of the Year category, which is a narrower question than who wins the award. Because the Grammy Song of the Year honor is described as recognizing artistic achievement and overall excellence rather than sales or chart performance [5], a nomination outcome depends on the Academy's selection rather than commercial measures. The country music Song of the Year contracts show how similar questions are framed: one asks whether a song wins, and another depends on whether the song is officially nominated when nominees are announced [2]. Anyone reading a price for the Grammy nominee contract should first confirm its own rules, closing time and resolution source, since the supplied evidence does not include them.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the supplied evidence include the rules for the Grammy nominee contract?
No. The listing names the event and its markets, but no rules excerpt for the nominee question was supplied, so its resolution terms cannot be confirmed here.
Is the Country Music Association Song of the Year contract the same as the Grammy nominee contract?
No. The Country Music Association contract asks whether a named song wins Song of the Year at the 60th Country Music Association Awards, and it resolves to Yes if that happens [1]. It is a separate event from the Grammy nominee question.
What happens in the country Song of the Year contract if a song is not nominated?
The Polymarket version states that a listed song not officially nominated for the Country Music Association Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees are announced will immediately resolve to No [2].
What happens if no winner is declared for the country Song of the Year contract?
According to the Polymarket listing, if no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [2].
How are ties handled in the country Song of the Year contract?
The Polymarket listing says a tie resolves in favor of the tied winning song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
