This market is tied to the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 14th District. Its contract rules ask whether the Democratic Party's winning margin in that race will reach a stated number of percentage points [1]. A Wikipedia page on Florida's 2026 House elections, retrieved on 2026-10-29, says the state's House elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, alongside Senate and state and local races, and that primaries took place on August 18, 2026 [2]. That page describes a scheduled date and a past primary; it does not establish the result of any race. The margin is calculated from vote percentages. If the Democratic Party wins, the margin is the Democratic vote percentage minus the percentage received by the candidate, party or option that finishes immediately behind it. If the Democratic Party loses, the margin is the Democratic percentage minus the percentage of the candidate or party that finishes first, which produces a negative number [1]. A tie for first place yields a margin of 0. The rules apply no rounding, and each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound [1]. In an uncontested race where Democrats are the only candidate, the rules set the margin at 100 percentage points, or at the total raw vote count for raw-vote markets [1]. The saved event for this topic contains eleven threshold contracts, each asking whether the Democratic margin will be at least a given number of points, from 2 to 32 points in steps of three [1]. In the snapshot observed at 2026-10-29T15:00:06 UTC, the Yes price for the 2-point contract was 0.55, while the Yes price for the 32-point contract was 0.0265. Each price is a snapshot from one provider's record at that time, not an executable quote or a verified probability. Trading volume, which the saved data does not report here in a way that describes trader numbers, should not be read as liquidity. The rules state that the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The saved market records list an end date of 2027-11-03, but the rules page lists its end time as not supplied [1]. That field should therefore not be read as the date the race will be certified or the contract will settle. Final settlement depends on the certified results and the rules described above.

Historical Context

Florida's 14th District has been redrawn over time. A Wikipedia page on the neighboring 13th District reports that in the 2020 redistricting cycle, most of St. Petersburg facing Tampa Bay was moved into the 14th District, while the rest of Pinellas County formerly in the 12th District became part of the 13th [3]. That change describes how the district boundaries were drawn after 2020. It does not describe the 2026 candidates or the outcome of the race.

Frequently Asked Questions